Rick Santorum won decisively in yesterday's Alabama primary, and managed to eke out a win over Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in Mississippi, while Romney easily won Hawaii and American Samoa.
However, in terms of delegates, Mitt Romney increased his lead, ending up with 41 delegates as opposed to 35 for Santorum and 24 for Newt Gingrich, who finished second in both states.Romney wins in both Hawaii and American Samoa and his showing in Alabama and Mississippi enabled him to come out ahead.
What this means is that the bloodletting en route to the GOP convention in Tampa is going to continue, sucking up money and infrastructure and keeping the spotlight off President Obama and his record.
It's pretty easy to figure out why Romney didn't do better than he did..the Deep South is not exactly friendly territory for Mormons, and unlike other states, the Evangelicals broke heavily for Santorum.In pre-election polls, Romney wasn't given a prayer of winning anyway.And Newt Gingrich's constant referring to Romney as 'the Massachusetts Moderate' could also be counted on to stir up a few long-standing regional prejudices.
It remains to be seen whether those numbers would hold up in the general if Romney ends up being the nominee.
For Rick Santorum, it was a badly needed win. It's obvious that Santorum has successfully positioned himself as the Anti-Romney candidate. He's now finished ahead of Newt Gingrich in 20 out of 24 state match ups.
What isn't clear for both Ric Santorum and Newt Gingrich is to see how they get to the magic number of 1,144 delegates needed to get the nomination. Santorum now faces winner take all contests in DC (where's he's not on the ballot), Delaware, New Jersey, Utah - and California, if this goes on that long. Mitt Romney is well placed to win all 6 contests, and given his count already and how he's likely to do in the other states where delegates are awarded proportionately, it's hard to see how either Gingrich or Santorum make the nut, unless something crazy happens.
Gingrich pretty much realizes that now, and is already talking about a 'Santorum-Gingrich alliance.' I think he's kidding himself. In spite of the bad blood between Romney and Santorum, if Rick Santorum finishes that close to the money, a Romney-Santorum ticket is much more likely.Gingrich simply isn't going to end up with enough to bring to the table.
Keep in mind that most delegates are bound to vote the way they're pledged for only the first ballot. The possibility of a brokered convention just got a lot more likely.
No comments:
Post a Comment