Tuesday, March 20, 2012

Which Way Is The GOP Race Headed?

Now that the Illinois primary is over, it might be a good time to actually examine the GOP race in the cold light of fact. And the fact is that Rick Santorum faces an almost impossible task in getting the GOP nomination barring something crazy happening. And that's especially true since he lost huge in Illinois tonight.

Let's take a brief look at the actual math involved.

To get the nomination, you need 1,144 delegates.

Right now, not taking Illinois 54 delegates into account, Mitt Romney has 521 delegates, while Rick Santorum has 253. Newt Gingrich, who's no longer really a factor has 135.

There are 289 unbound 'super delegates' not pledged to Santorum, Gingrich or Paul. Mitt Romney already has 33 of those delegates..giving him a total of 554.

The next slew of upcoming primaries include 329 delegates who will be awarded on a winner take all basis, all in states Romney is heavily favored to win - Maryland (37), Washington DC (16), Delaware (17),California (169), NewJersey (50), and Utah (40) that gives Romney a total of 883, not counting Romney's Illinois win ( 54 delegates) , not counting any delegates Romney picks up in other states that award delegates proportionately and not counting any additional super delegates that get behind the front runner, as they always do towards the end.

The other upcoming proportional primaries in New York (95 delegates) and Rhode Island ( 19 delegates) also strongly favor Romney.

Even if Rick Santorum wins the only other winner take all primary in Wisconsin, (42 delegates), even if he wins most of Louisiana's 46 delegates, even if he manages to get most of the delegates in his home state of Pennsylvania, even if he wins the majority of the 155 delegates in Texas ( and I think both Texas and Pennsylvania going totally to Santorum are doubtful ) the math just isn't there for him to get to 1,144.

Unless Mitt Romney commits such a huge gaffe that he simply knocks himself out of the race.

What I think this means is that both Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich need to do some serious thinking. Both of them say they want to defeat Barack Obama in November, and neither of them have any strategy left to get the nomination outside of some kind of sabotage at the convention.

Meanwhile, as the contentious GOP primary continues eating up oxygen and money,President Obama is flying around the country at the taxpayer's expense and building his campaign and his war chest unimpeded.

I hope both of them sit back, take a deep breath and reflect on these two facts.


Anonymous said...

Newt has already proven himself to be a gigantic ego-putz and Santorum is delusional. Neither one actually cares about anyone or anything but themselves.When this race is over, if Romeny loses to Obama, we can blame those two hangers-on who refused to help defeat Obama. If Romney wins in spite of them, I hope he marginalizes them and those that egged them on, in his administration.

B.Poster said...

"I hope both of them sit back, take a deep breath and reflect on these two things." I hope you're right. The RNC has been bound and determined to give us Romney no matter what and no matter what the Republicans prospects are to win in November. As such, it was difficult if not impossible for any of the other candidates to get any traction. It also does not help that Romney is the Democrats favorite candidate. I only hope and pray the RNC knows what they are doing, as it is imperative that Mr. Obama changes course or loses.

Since I don't see Mr. Obama changing course, I think the only course of action is to defeat him. In fact, not only do I not envision Mr. Obama changing course if he wins, I see him doubling down on failed policies.

It did not have to be Romney. The RNC could have done much better but it was going to be Romney no matter what. Hopefully they know what they are doing, as it appears they've gotten their wish.

Since Romney was going to get the nomination any way, its probably best that he wrap it up in the primaries rather than having the RNC hand it to him over someone else at the convention.