Wednesday, June 27, 2007

Iran prepares for war with gasoline rationing and troop incursions into Iraq

Iranians torch a gas station in protest against rationing.

We may be in denial here in America about whether we're at war or not, but our Iranian friends certainly aren't.

Amid rumors of various troop incursions in parts of Iraq, the mullahs took the concrete step of immediately instituting drastic gasoline rationing, which led to an outbreak of rioting that included the torching and vandalizing of a number of gas stations. The rationing was announced just two hours before it went into effect:

"From midnight tonight, gasoline for all motor vehicles and motorcycles will be rationed," state television said in an announcement quoting the Oil Ministry.

This has received a fair amount of coverage, with a lot of speculation that this is the beginning of some kind of revolt against the mullahs. It's nothing of the kind.

The regime instituted this for one reason and one reason a preparation for war. And it wouldn't do this unless it was confident in its ability to control the Iranian `street'

Iran is a major crude oil producer, albeit with declining output, but gasoline is another matter. Corruption and antiquated refineries mean that Iran needs to import over 40% of its gasoline, making this a major Achilles heel for the regime in any military confrontation, as I've noted before.

To try and counteract this, the Iranians are feverishly trying to convert military vehicles to natural gas, and have now instituted rationing in a desperate attempt to build up some reserves to try and provide the Republican Guards with enough fuel to perform in what they feel is an imminent attack by the US to curtail their nuclear program and keep their power stations and water supplies running in case of a war.

That's the Iranian bogeyman we're so afraid of confronting..scrounging for gasoline!

The Republican Guard is also apparently deploying troops in or near Iraq, with one of my sources reporting on a concentration adjacent to the Iranian province of Khuzestan:

The region, right near the Shatt al-Arab, contains a number of oil fields and Republican Guard bases and would likely be one of the first fronts in a US - Iran war. The Republican Guards reported in the region would attempt to repel US attempts to sabotage and destroy those facilities.

While a number of people have rightly been skeptical of the British Sun's account of Iranian forces crossing the Iraqi border and attacking British forces there, it's worth noting that the Republican Guard has deployed troops and operatives in Iraq before, some of whom we have in custody...and in conjunction with the abrupt rationing, the crackdown on dissidents and the various deployments and training going on with their military, it's obvious that the mullahs feel that something is right around the corner.

Let's hope so. The time to stomp these cockroaches is now, before they get the more advanced toys they're so fervidly seeking.

1 comment:

Rosey said...

Gasoline shortage? Burn gas stations! That's solve the problem...