Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Obama's Coalition Melting Away

The last few weeks have seen major defections from the coalition that elected Barack Hussein Obama in 2008, and the president's recent actions have driven even formerly loyal groups on the Left away from him with disgust.

The pro-amnestia crowd are upset with him because an amnesty bill for illegal aliens...er, 'comprehensive immigration reform'..has not materialized and even the back door amnesty of the DREAM Act looks slated for failure in the Democrat-dominated Lame Duck Congress, which essentially means it's history once the new Congress seats.

Gay activists are infuriated at the hold up over the repeal of Don't Ask Don't Tell,which even a proponent like SecDef Gates admits is a long way off.

The unions - at least the AFL-CIO - and their supporters on the Left are outraged with Obama over a new NAFTA-style trade deal with South Korea that could cost the US an estimated 159,000 jobs (according to the union-backed Economic Policy Institute).

And what Obama spokeshole Robert Gibbs referred to as the 'professional Left' is absolutely steaming over Obama's recent surrender to the GOP over the Bush-era tax cuts after the Lame Duck Democrats in the House voted to limit them in a bill that died in the Senate.

All of this is quite entertaining, of course..live by identity group politics, die by identity group politics.

But then we come to another question...does this mean Obama is going to face a primary challenge?

It's not impossible. None other than George Soros stated publicly that 'progressives may have to find other things to invest in besides Obama'. And Hillary Clinton keeps denying adamantly that she's planning to run, which to those who know Lady Macbeth's reputation for truthfulness means she's seriously considering it.

But while Obama might face a primary challenge ( and remember, I think the odds of him running for a second term are only 50/50), much would have to change before it would be even remotely successful.

Obama still retains the loyalty of at least one important Democrat demographic..black America. To them, it's not because of his policies but because he's a racial symbol to them and he's continued to maintain high approval ratings here. Those ratings would have to drop substantially for a primary challenge to succeed.

The Democrats have not carried the white vote for decades, and any Democrat candidate needs a monolithic and high black turnout to have a shot at the White House. That fact and the unwillingness to alienate George Soros' money and network or Nut roots organizations is why the Democrat super delegates gave Obama the nomination, even though Hillary Clinton had a majority of delegates and had won all the big state primaries.

That same dynamic applies today, at least when it comes to the black vote.

Nevertheless, I could see a primary challenge to Obama,one that could weaken if not defeat him but not from Hillary - from the Left. But there would need to be a charismatic candidate who could mobilize those forces, another Ted Kennedy, Eugene McCarthy or a slicker Howard Dean, and so far, none has emerged yet.

Of course, the real fun would be if Obama decides not to run and the Jackasses representing various pressure groups in the Democrat party start fighting amongst themselves.

Yes, that would really be pass the popcorn time...

please donate...it helps me write more gooder!


Rosey said...

I hate to make predictions. In politics, two years is lifetime, blah blah blah...
1) Obama will run. 100% not 50/50.
2) He will face a primary challenge. Not sure from who yet.
3) Obama will win the primary, but suffer damage as a result of the challenge.
4) Obama will lose the general election.
You know Hillary wants to run, and is contemplating how. I'm wondering if she will quit secretary of state to launch the primary challenge. Could happen...

Puzzledismymiddlename said...

Wouldn't Lady Macbeth (good name for Hillary) be the heir apparent if Obama decided not to run? I think she would get both the white and black vote in the Democratic Party. Although I'm not convinced she would have done any better than Obama if she had been elected POTUS, there are many Democrats who believe that she was treated unfairly the last time she ran, or that her leadership skills are better than his. Note: I don't believe that her leadership skills are better, but I do think she's knows not to beat a dead horse, which Obama may now be learning.