Sunday, August 21, 2011

Khaddaffi: The Fall Of The Brother Leader

Rebels entered Tripoli today from the west, meeting almost no resistance. A planned uprising within Khaddaffi's stronghold broke out as the rebels attacked the city.

According to what rebel spokesperson Adel Dabbechi told Reuters, Khaddaffi's younger son Saif Al-Islam had been captured and his eldest son Mohammed Al-Gaddafi have surrendered to rebel forces.

The rebels have secured Green Square in central Tripoli, there are racous celebrations going on and the city appears to have fallen although sporadic fighting continues.

And the Brother Leader? Conflicting reports. Some reports on Twitter say he was shot and killed near the Rixos Hotel while trying to escape. Other reports have him in Algeria and en route to Tunis and exile.

In any case, the regime has obviously fallen. But before we break out the champagne, there's an important thing to consider - what happens next?

As those regular members of Joshua's Army know, the rebels are severely divided and there are Islamist Muslim Brotherhood and al-Qaeda factions among them. The Obama Administration got us involved in this costly adventure on behalf of one side in a civil war without even a clear idea of whom we're helping.

At this point, Khaddaffi's arsenals have been looted and the booty widely dispersed, including cute little toys like SA-7 missiles, portable shoulder fired surface-to-air heat seeking missiles that can be used against civilian and military aircraft.

What happens next? My bet is chaos as various factions fight for the spoils.And I doubt the ultimate outcome is going to be what the Obama Administration expected.

I only hope he doesn't waste more of our money on another farcical nation building extravaganza.

Between this and an Islamist regime taking over in Egypt, the foundations for the New Caliphate have likely been laid.

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B.Poster said...

This has never made much sense from the beginning. As I understood it, Western European nations such as Britain and France had perfectly good oil deals with the Khaddaffi government. Why would they jepordize theose deals to support a group of rebels that so little is known about? What guarantees do we have that the new government is going to honor these deals?

Now I do remember reading a leftist screed where Khaddaffi had said the oil contracts were going to go to China and Russia. Now if this was the case and Khaddaffi betrayed the Western European nations, the cut off of these oil supplies would have represented a grave national security threat to them and they would have needed to take military action to secure vital oil supplies. As a member of NATO and the security guarantees inherent in that arrangement it would only be natural that the US would get pulled in.

There are three areas among many where America and Western European leaders and the people of these countries need serious attitude adjustments. 1.)We need a return to the Judeo-Christian principles upon which our civilizations were founded. As we drift farther and farther from these principles it becomes increasingly problematic to expect God to continue to bless our nations. At this hour, we desparately need His blessings.
2.)The way we look at oil is all wrong. Typically oil is viewed as a substance that evil, greedy robber barons use to exploit the people and to get rich off of. Oil is vital to the functioning of modern economy. As such governments are justified in doing whatever is ncessary to ensure that their people have access to a stable and reasonably priced supply of the substance. The companies and people who extract, refine, and distribute the oil and the managers who oversee the process should be regared as national treasures instead of the constant demonization they face.
3.) Our view of imperialism is all wrong. We tend to view imperialism as an evil vile thing that should be avoided at all costs. Sometimes imperialism is necessary to ensure that we have access to vital raw materials and other things we may need. As such, it should be looked upon as something that will sometimes be necessary.

It is becuase of Western fallacy number 3 mentioned above that we are unlikely to try and force our will on the various factions in Libya in order to ensure that our just interests are properly represented.

Finally, I've been asking whose funding and directing the "Arab Spring." Now I think its a legitimate question as to whose training their ground forces. Given the conditions involved with the air suppor the rebels had, had US ground forces been used instead of the rebel forces our forces would have been hard pressed to accomplish the removal of the Khaddaffi government in only six months. Yet somehow the rebels have managed to put together a first rate fighting force in only six months!! Whose training these people?

Our current options here are quite limited. They are: 1.)try and identify factions who might support us and our just interests and support them, or 2.)completely withdraw and allow the factions to determine how their country will be governed. While this sorts itself out, we can take the time to deploy our forces to defensible positions along our borders. If things don't work out the way we would hope they do, at least we have a fighting chance to defend our nation and our people.

I'd prefer option 1 but the CIA ande other intellegence services likely does not have the core competencies to carry this out. Also, due to the rampant anti-Americanism in the region its unlikely any one will want to work with us any way. As such, option 2 is really our only viable option.

B.Poster said...

"I only hope he doesn't waste more of our money on another farcical nation building extravaganza."

I don't think he has the money to waste even if he wanted to. Libya under Khaddaffi was closely allied with Russia and China. China can always stop buying US debt or China can always call its debt that the US owes it which would result in massive changes to US policies. Essentially a nation building excersize in the manner that would benefit American interests is not going to be possible.

I would suspect the Russians and the Chinese have already identified groups within the rebel factions who will be most empathetic to their interests. Essentially I doubt the Russians and the Chinese are going to allow Libya to move to far from their orbit, especially Russia.

Unfortunately what we will probably end up with is a new government that is hostile to Aemrican interests, friendly to the interests of Russia and China, and friendly to the interests of Jihadists. What a waste of resources for us to have participated in this!! I really do hope it turns out I'm wrong here.

If we could do a "nation building" excersize, we would need enough forces to 1.)secure the nation's borders, 2.)secure the weapons depots, 3.)secure the oil facilities, and 4.)provide security for the population. At this point, we don't have the forces, nor the political will. Even if we had all of this, the Russians and the Chinese are not going to allow it. As stated previously, they are not going to allow Libya to deviate to far from the orbit.

In a way its to bad we can't do it. If we could, the potential return on the investment would be fabulous for both us and the Libyans.

With a worn down military, an economy that is in the tank, a crumbling infrastructure, and massive unfunded liabilities it is likely that our only real choice is complete withdrawl to defensible positions along our borders. This has always been a viable option for a number of years but due to our current situation now it appears to be the only viable option. Maybe there's another option. I'm just not seeing it.