Jihadi Cockroaches Anwar al-Aulaqi And Samir Khan Killed

Some great news today..Anwar al-Awlaqi was a 40-year-old Muslim cleric who specialized in recruiting potential jihadis for terrorism, and Samir Khan was the co-editor of al-Qaeda's slick internet mag Inspire.

The good news is that both of them caught the wrong end of a Hellfire missile fired from a Predator drone and are now crispy halal critters.

The strike took place this morning five miles from the town of Khashef in Yemen’s northern Jawf province, 87 miles east of the capital, Sanaa.

Both Awlaki and Khan were U.S. citizens, which means some of the usual suspects on the Left ( I'm looking at you, Glen Greenwald) are bewailing this...but then so is Ron Paul. They seem to have forgotten that Awlaki and Kahn are traitors according to the rather strict definition given by our Constitution, and thus subject to summary execution since they chose not to surrender and go to trial and were actively engaged in hostilities against the U.S. They were subject to death or capture, whichever worked out. They won't be missed.

U.S. intelligence had been tracking Awlaki for quite some time, and a local tribal leader said Awlaqi had been moving in the provinces Marib and Jawf for the past three weeks because he was worried about being targeted in Yemen’s southern Shabwa province, the main area where his tribe lives.

There's an interesting political subtext here. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula ( AQAP) has actively been involved in the local 'Arab Spring' movement seeking to oust Yemen's Saleh regime. Of late, Saleh has been co-operating quite a bit with U.S. intelligence and some of the opposition see this as a ploy for Saleh to remain in power.

Another complex part of the mix is that Yemen has become a sort of proxy war between Saudi Arabia and Iran just like Bahrain was, with Iran backing the rebels and the Saudis backing the Saleh regime. This may be a sign that the Obama Administration has finally come to its senses about the so-called Arab Spring the president helped unleash and is trying to cut its losses somewhat.

In any event, it's a excellent end for two really evil men. And I use that term loosely.

PS: ABC News also refers to these creatures as 'jihadis'. *Gasp* Are elements of the dinosaur media finally starting to catch up to Joshuapundit??!!? What's next? Using the "T" word?

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Obama: 'America's Gone Soft"

"I mean, there are a lot of things we can do," Obama said. "The way I think about it is, you know, this is a great, great country that had gotten a little soft and, you know, we didn't have that same competitive edge that we needed over the last couple of decades. We need to get back on track."

My, my. President Obama has just come out with her version of Jimmy Carter's 'malaise' remarks.

You see, we don't deserve the president's enlightened rule. We're too 'soft', and just not worthy.

Let's talk about that competitive edge, shall we?

As a matter of fact,let's start by asking the GM car dealers who were forced out of business when the Obama Administration turned it into Government Motors...you know, the ones that weren't minority owned or whose owners had the misfortune to either be or have contributed to Republicans.

Or how about the billions the Obama Administration has poured into 'green energy' scams like Solyndra run by his top campaign contribution bundlers while doing everything they can to retard the use of oil and coal?

I wonder, does this president's embrace of 'competitiveness' mean that he's now for school choice and vouchers and right to work laws? Does it mean he's now against against funding NPR, the money he gave to Brazil's oil industry, ObamaCare, the GM subsidies and affirmative action?

No and no...it means the president likes 'competition' when he and Big Government call the shots to reward their loyal subjects. It means the very essence of crony capitalism.

And what about being 'soft'? I mean, I wasn't aware that Martha's Vineyard, separate jets on the taxpayer's dime because a husband and wife can't coordinate their schedules, $100 per pound wagyu steak and five star resorts in Spain were examples of the tough life.

I agree with President Obama on one thing. We really don't deserve his 'leadership'. I only wish we could swap him to another country more worthy of it than America.

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The Council Has Spoken!! This Week's Watcher's Council Results

The Council has spoken, the votes have been cast, and the results are in for this week, carved eternally in the akashic records of cyberspace.

Israel is very much in the news these days (when isn't it) and a number of pundits have looked at the threats the country faces and concluded that its very existence is threatened. This week's winner, Joshuapundit's Can Israel Survive? analyzes at the question and the threats and sees things quite differently. Here's a slice:

There’s a great deal of speculation these days on Israel’s dire situation, most notably from renowned author and scholar Victor Davis Hanson in the National Review, who prefaces it with a remark that the country has never been in more danger.

The Islamist regimes in Egypt and elsewhere brought on by the Arab Spring and their growing hostility to Israel, the genocidal influence of Iran and its missile armed proxies Hamas and Hezbollah, Erdogan's Islamist Turkey, the huge influence of Arab petro-dollars, and the indifference and growing anti-semitism in much of Europe and the exhaustion and debt of the United States are frequently cited.

It's a gloomy picture, and none of it is to be trivialized. But I think dire predictions of Israel's demise are premature, to say the least.

It’s worth remembering that Israel has faced far worst and survived. In 1948, the British left Palestine, but not before confiscating as many arms in the hands of Jews as they could find and turning over strategic locations to Israel's genocidal enemies. In the year leading up to that conflict, the British armed the Arab nations with modern weapons including aircraft and tanks in spite of their open and explicit threats of jihad against Israel's Jews. In the case of Jordan, the British not only trained the Arab Legion but officered it during the 1948 war and oversaw the ethnic cleansing of Jews from their homes in Judea, Samaria and East Jerusalem, led by a Jew hating British Colonel by the name of John Glubb, AKA Glubb Pasha. And this was a mere three years after the liberation of Auschwitz.

The Jews had no aircraft or artillery, and used homemade 'Davidka' mortars and improvised armored trucks as 'tanks'. They were unable to purchase weapons from the United States because President Truman decided to put an arms embargo on both sides, something that affected Israel greatly and the Arabs not at all, since they were able to purchase arms openly from Britain and other European countries, many of whom were unwilling to sell arms to Israel for fear of angering the oil rich Arabs. In one of the ironies of history, a major cache of the arms the Jews used to win their war of independence were Nazi arms left over from the occupation of Czechoslovakia, purchased by Israel on the black market.

Somehow, the Jews prevailed against the attempted second Holocaust. And without the help of Europe, the United States or the UN.

They prevailed again in 1967, after a last minute cutoff of arms and supplies from Charles DeGaulle deprived them of all arms and supplies from France, their major arms source. The US remained neutral during that war and supplied no arms to the Jewish State, who were facing war on three fronts from Arab nations armed with the latest Soviet weapons. The Six Day War was a miracle not only because Israel won against overwhelming odds, but because they were able to win before the supplies and spare parts for their French weapons ran out.

Today's situation is not to be underestimated, but not nearly as dire as it might seem. In many ways, Israel's position is far more secure and superior than it was then.

In our non-Council category, the winner was Gonzalo Lira for What I learned At Dartmouth submitted by Rhymes with Right. It's an excellent first hand account on what can happen because of the war on American males on college campuses and political correctness run amuck.


Here are this week’s full results. Snapped Shot was unable to vote this week, but was not affected by the 2/3 vote penalty:

Council Winners

• *First place with 4 votes! Joshuapundit–-Can Israel Survive?



• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes – Bookworm Room-Elizabeth Warren-- mob boss



• Second place *t* with 1 2/3 votes – The Noisy Room-Man of the Hour – Herman Cain



• Third place *t* with 1 vote – The Razor-The French Lady of the Mountains



• Third place *t* with 1 vote – Simply Jews-Iranian army parading into the future



• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – New Zeal – Red Reps 14: Scoop! Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva's Communist Party Connections



• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – Right Truth – Hooking Up With Fox News, Google Is Not Stupid



• Fourth place *t* with 2/3 vote – VA Right! – Scott Brown Opponent Elizabeth Warren Is an Idiot! The Factory PAID for the IMPROVEMENTS!



• Fourth place *t* with 1/3 vote – The Colossus of Rhodey – I wonder about this



• Fourth place *t* with 1/3 vote -The Political Commentator- White House shills defecting as AP debunks the President on taxes!

Non-Council Winners

• First place with 3 votes! – Gonzalo Lira- What I Learned At Dartmouth submitted by Rhymes With Right



• Second place with 1 2/3 votes – Consewrvative Black Chick – Obama to Blacks: Take Off Your Bedroom Slippers; Stop Complaining submitted by The Glittering Eye



• Third place with 1 1/3 vote - The Diplomat – U.S. takes gloves off with Pakistan submitted by Bookworm Room



• Fourth place with 1 vote -Milpundit – Many Are The Armies of Darkness submitted by Simply Jews



• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Sipsey Street Irregulars – U.S. Gov't used an ATF employee to buy weapons with taxpayer money & walk them -- without help from straw buyers! submitted by The Razor



• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Right, Wing-nut – Rick Perry: An Honest Supporter of Israel, and The Jews.... submitted by Right Truth



• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -Mick Hartley – Making The Wrong Decision submitted by Simply Jews



• Fifth place *t* with 2/3 vote -John Hawkins/Pajamas Media – Hey Lady Gaga, Kids Have a Time-Tested Answer for Bullies: Punch Them in the Mouth submitted by The Watcher



• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Sultan Knish – Serfs in Warrenville submitted by The Noisy Room



• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Foreign Affairs – Admiral Mullen Takes on The ISI submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD



• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Rightwing Nuthouse – Vladimir Putin: Act II submitted by The Political Commentator



• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Discriminations – Post- Post-Partisan Obama And The Confederate Races Of America submitted by The Colossus of Rhodey



• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Right Planet – Cultural Marxism and the Death of Belief submitted by The Watcher



• Sixth place *t* with 1/3 vote -Ted's Take – Class Warfare - Yuck! submitted by The Watcher

See you next week! And don't forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter..'cause we're cool like that!

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L'Shanah Tovah!

Happy New Year! Celebrating 5,772 Years With The Same Management...

Tonight at sundown, the Jewish New Year kicks in, traditionally a time for reflection and spiritual self-examination, as it starts the Days of Awe that proceed through Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement.

It's traditional to eat apples and honey and sweet things in general, as you see these Jews in Uganda doing:



Pomegranates are also eaten, because the seeds symbolize fertility.

One of the most important traditions of the holiday is the blowing of a ram's horn, the shofar. It is designed to be a trumpet call that galvanizes Jews into a spiritual awakening, in the ten days before Yom Kippur, the Day of Atonement.

One of the holiest places to blow the shofar on Rosh Hashona and Yom Kippur is at the kotel, the Western Wall. And there are still Jews alive who remember when that was a crime.

When the British ruled Israel,they did everything they could to deny the Jews a nation in spite of their pledged word and the League of nations mandate they held to create a Jewish state.

As part of that, they forbade Jews to sound the shofar or bring Torah scrolls to the Kotel under pain of arrest and imprisonment. And of course, after the Arabs took over the Old City, the Jews who lived there were forcibly expelled,their Holy shrines were desecrated and destroyed and the Kotel was used as a garbage dump.

Here's a wonderful video showing how the Jews dealt with the British and what happened at the Kotel when the Jews retook the Old City from the Arabs after 19 years of exile. It will make you smile:



Anyone who thinks the Jews are willingly going to give up Jerusalem again ought to seek psychiatric care.

My very best wishes for the coming year....may you and yours be inscribed for a sweet and wonderful year.

Shanah tovah u'metukah.

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Massachusetts Muslim Arrested In Plot To Blow Up Pentagon

Rezwan Ferdaus, 26-year-old Northeastern University grad with a degree in physics was arrested today for what the FBI called an al-Qaeda inspired plot to blow up the Pentagon using small remote-controlled aircraft packed with C-4 explosives. The airplanes involved were no toys - one of the planes Ferdaus intended to use was 68 inches long with a 44-inch wingspan able to travel up to 160 mph and guided by GPS.

He was arrested at a storage facility in in Framingham, Massachusetts after taking delivery of what he thought were C-4 explosives, grenades and AK-47 assault rifles.

He's also accused of trying to rig cell phones to trigger improvised explosive devices to maim or kill U.S. soldiers serving overseas, items he supplied to undercover FBI agents he thought were members of al-Qaeda. He was delighted by reports his bobby-trapped phones worked, the U.S. Attorney in Boston Carmen M. Ortiz said. The FBI also recovered full details of his plot on a computer thumb drive belonging to Ferdaus...who is a US citizen.

Ortiz said today that “Mr. Ferdaus had long planned to commit violent acts against our country” that included using three “small drone planes” filled with explosives and guided by GPS devices. He plotted to have six people, including himself whom he described as an “amir” — an Arabic term for leader — to carry out the plot, feds said.

One day, we're going to wake up to the fact that it just might be common sense to halt immigration and issuing visas to certain countries and to people of certain backgrounds. I would have thought 9/11 would have brought that message home, but apparently it didn't. At least not to those in charge.

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Pam Geller Suing The NY MTA

Atlas Shrug's Pam Geller is suing the New York Metropolitan Transit Authority for refusing to run the above ad on its subways and buses.

According to an MTA spokesman, the agency “does not approve or disapprove of issue-oriented advertisements based on the viewpoint being expressed,” and that it recently approved other ads that focused on the Middle East. “However, our advertising standards do prohibit language that demeans an individual or group.”

Apparently the word 'savage' was the sticking point.

However, the MTA was perfectly happy to run this ad,which calls the IDF savages by implication:



Aw,isn't that cute? I wonder if the good folks over at the MTA ever heard of Samir Kuntar, an honorary 'Palestinian citizen' who was feted by Mahmoud Abbas himself. Or that Abbas referred to the many child murderers held in Israeli prisons as 'heroes of freedom' and insists they all have to be freed in any peace deal...and that includes the Tanzim sniper who shot little 10-month-old Shalhevat Pas in her stroller.

Maybe if Pam used this picture, it would have made her point a bit more graphically:



That was taken after the non-savages lynched two IDF reservists who wandered across the border accidentally during what was supposed to be peacetime and were literally torn apart by a mob while the 'Palestinian' security forces stood and watched...and participated. They were convicted in an Israeli court of course...the 'Palestinians have never put anyone in jail for murdering Jews.

( sorry about the LGF link...that was back when Chuckles was still sane)

Robert Muise of the Thomas More Law Center and ace lawyer David Yerushalmi are involved, so this isn't frivolous and has major implications for the way jihad and its adherents are portrayed in the future.

Yaser Koach, Pam!

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Quid Pro Quo..GOP Senators Approve Financing To Avert Shutdown In Exchange For...

The Republicans in the Senate voted along with their Democrat colleagues Monday for a last minute bill that will keep the government running through November 18.

Only 12 Republicans voted against the bill, which was touted as a way to keep FEMA from running out of cash at the end of the fiscal year.

Part of the price for GOP support was not disclosed however. It was an under the table deal to confirm four conservative US attorneys recommended by Republicans that had been stonewalled by the Obama DOJ and its allies in Congress.

In other words, in order to make the deal, Harry Reid was willing to toss the Democrat Left under the bus.

Another part of the deal according to my sources involves delaying the Senate taking on President Obama's 'jobs' bill - you know, the one that needs to be passed now, now, now - until after the recess and after other items were dealt with, so the bill might not even come up for debate before the Christmas/holiday recess.

A number of the Senate Democrats were reportedly happy to delay that particular turkey as long as possible, since none of them are anxious t6o have their names attached to what essentially is a tax increase with elections coming up.

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Soccer Dad's Mideast Media Sampler 9/28/11‏

Today's sampler and analysis of Mideast media content from my pal Soccer Dad:

1) Fool me once shame on you; fool me twice, cause I've been listening to Thomas Friedman

First a parable:
Once an inquisitive student sought out Rabbi Tom "Hillel" Friedman and asked Rabbi "Hillel," "Please teach me about the Middle East while I stand on one foot." The wise sage stroked his mustache, smiled thinly and said, "It's always Israel's fault. All the rest is commentary. Now go and study."


Thomas Friedman's detachment from reason is in full display in his latest column, 2 for 2 or 2 for 1? First he makes some valid observations:

If clashes erupt between Israelis and Palestinians today, there is no President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt to absorb the flames. Now there is a Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, ready to fan them — toward Israel.

But then, a few sentences later writes:

Given these stakes, here is what a farsighted Israeli government would say to itself: “We have so much more to lose than the Palestinians if all this collapses. So let’s go the extra mile. Abbas says he will not come to peace talks without a freeze on settlement-building. We think that is bogus. We gave him a 10-month partial freeze and he did nothing with it. But you know what? There is so much at stake here, let’s test him again. Let’s offer him a six-month total freeze on settlement-building. What is six months in the history of 5,000-year-old people? We already have 300,000 settlers in place. It is a win-win strategy that in no way imperils our security. If the Palestinians still balk, they will be the ones isolated, not us. And, if they come, who knows? Maybe we cut a deal.”

After acknowledging that Israel's situation is worsening independent of anything Israel does, Friedman, of course, blames Israel!


Let's recall recent comments by two former national leaders.


First Bill Clinton was recently quoted in Foreign Policy:

"[Palestinian leaders] have explicitly said on more than one occasion that if [Netanyahu] put up the deal that was offered to them before -- my deal -- that they would take it," Clinton said, referring to the 2000 Camp David deal that Yasser Arafat rejected.

Then Ehud Olmert contributed Peace Now or Never to the New York Times op-ed page.

The parameters of a peace deal are well known and they have already been put on the table. I put them there in September 2008 when I presented a far-reaching offer to Mr. Abbas.
According to my offer, the territorial dispute would be solved by establishing a Palestinian state on territory equivalent in size to the pre-1967 West Bank and Gaza Strip with mutually agreed-upon land swaps that take into account the new realities on the ground.
... These parameters were never formally rejected by Mr. Abbas, and they should be put on the table again today. Both Mr. Abbas and Mr. Netanyahu must then make brave and difficult decisions.

There are two things to note here. Both these accounts can't be true. If Palestinian leaders are telling Clinton that they'd accept "the Clinton parameters" from Netanyahu, then why did Abbas reject Olmert's more generous terms? Either Clinton heard what he wanted to hear or he's lying. Also this already makes it (at least) twice that the Palestinians have rejected the terms that "everyone knows" will bring peace. What makes Friedman think that the third time's the charm?


Furthermore what makes Friedman think that if Abbas rejects a deal the Palestinians will be isolated? They weren't isolated in after Camp David in 2000. They weren't isolated in 2008. Friedman can't believe that. What he must believe is that Israel needs to keep upping their offer until the Palestinians say "yes." Friedman assigns no penalty to the Palestinians for rejecting peace (neither do Clinton nor Olmert) and condemns Israel for Palestinian rejection!


We've been here before. As Charles Krauthammer has noticed before Israel's being cajoled into buying the same rug, again and again. In 1995 Krauthammer wrote:

So now, in the "interim" negotiations he is being offered (1) control of Kalkilya, Jenin, Nablus, Ramallah, Bethlehem, Tulkarm, the major West Bank cities, (2) broad new administrative powers within the West Bank, (3) the pledge of further and complete Israeli redeployment from the vast uninhabited "state" lands on the West Bank.
In return for what? Foreign Minister Shimon Peres has gotten Arafat to promise that, within two months of his taking power in the West Bank, the PLO will strike the clauses in its charter calling for the destruction of Israel.
This is the second time Arafat has sold Peres the same rug! First time around, he got Gaza and Jericho. Now, the West Bank. Next time, he'll sell it for Jerusalem.

Eight years later, with President Bush in power he wrote:

Abbas pledged there will be no more incitement of hatred against Israel -- another repetition of another Oslo pledge. The Palestinians then spent the next decade poisoning their children with the worst anti-Semitic propaganda since the Third Reich.
What then happened at Aqaba? Israel bought the same rug a second time. In 1993, it bought supposed recognition, a supposed end to violence and a supposed end to incitement by recognizing the PLO, bringing Arafat and his terrorists out of Tunis, planting them in the heart of Palestine, giving them control of all the major Palestinian cities, outfitting his army with Israeli rifles, etc.
In 2003 the rug was sold again, this time fetching Israeli acceptance of a Palestinian state with contiguous borders in which Israeli settlements are uprooted. This might be the outline of the final settlement. But these were concessions given away before the negotiations even began.

Friedman is half right when he writes in conclusion:

We really are back at the beginning of this conflict. Until each side reassures the other that both of them really do want two states for two people — not just for one — nothing good is going to happen out there, but something really bad might.

The Palestinians are back at the beginning of the conflict and have not budged since 1993. Israel has ceded territory changed its ideological makeup and has gotten terror and contempt in return. It isn't obstinacy to say "enough" and await a change of heart. It's common sense.






2) Why Thomas Friedman is wrong


Thomas Friedman from B.E Before Egypt A.E. After Egypt

But Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu of Israel is in danger of becoming the Mubarak of the peace process. Israel has never had more leverage vis-à-vis the Palestinians and never had more responsible Palestinian partners

(Responsible as in trying to sound like he's addressing the Arab League, as Friedman described Abbas in today's column?)


Thomas Friedman from Postcard from Cairo II

I am more worried today about Israel’s future than I have ever been, because I think that at time of great change in this region – and we have just seen the beginnings of it – Israel today has the most out-of-touch, in-bred, unimaginative and cliché-driven cabinet it has ever had.

Thomas Friedman in Israel Adrift at sea

On Turkey, the Obama team and Mr. Netanyahu’s lawyers worked tirelessly these last two months to resolve the crisis stemming from the killing by Israeli commandos of Turkish civilians in the May 2010 Turkish aid flotilla that recklessly tried to land in Gaza. Turkey was demanding an apology. According to an exhaustive article about the talks by the Israeli columnist Nahum Barnea of the Yediot Aharonot newspaper, the two sides agreed that Israel would apologize only for “operational mistakes” and the Turks would agree to not raise legal claims. Bibi then undercut his own lawyers and rejected the deal, out of national pride and fear that Mr. Lieberman would use it against him. So Turkey threw out the Israeli ambassador.

Regarding the first charge, that Netanyahu is the Mubarak of the peace process read David Pryce-Jones:


Mahmoud Abbas should have held elections two years ago, but postponed them from the all too well-founded fear that Hamas, his implacable rivals in Gaza, would win. Throughout the West Bank his own Fatah are loathed and despised for their corruption and arrogance. So Abbas rules by decree, a dictator although on a smaller scale than, say, Assad. The decision to ask the United Nations to endorse a Palestinian state was his and his alone. The Palestinians were not asked for their opinion. A number seem to have backed him, but a silent majority is apprehensive. Abbas cannot really have thought he would succeed in obtaining a state by refusing to make the least concession to Israel. He will never acknowledge a Jewish state, and his assertion that no Jew will be allowed to live in a Palestinian state is racism. So the United Nations delegations gave an ovation to someone without legitimacy, riding roughshod over the concept of consent or representation, and making proposals so one-sided that nothing constructive could come out of them. It will be a matter of luck if this peace process does not end in war.


Netanyahu is not the Mubarak of the peace process; Abbas is. (And remember that like Mubarak, Abbas takes care of cronies and kin.) And Friedman wants Netanyahu to make Abbas an offer he can't refuse.


Regarding whether Israel should have apologized to Turkey, read Gregg Roman:

Turkey: In trying to deal with the current friction with Turkey, Israel’s government proposed that it express regret for defending itself during the Gaza flotilla – or rather, not for defending itself per se, but for the resulting loss of life. It offered to make donations to a humanitarian fund for the relatives of those killed.
The Turkish government responded that it would accept only a full apology, the payment of compensation (an admission of wrongdoing, and based on demands rather than the donors judgment), and an immediate end to the Gaza blockade.
The Turkish demand was ironic, coming as it did immediately after a UN commission determined the blockade is legal.
So despite trying creative ways to end the conflict, Israeli officials could do nothing. Why? Because, for its own reasons, the Turkish regime doesn’t want to resolve the conflict. All Israel can do is to show its respect for the Turkish people and nation along with willingness to be flexible if the other side is reasonable.

Regardless of what Friedman claims, no apology would appease the Turks. What he means by "unimaginative" is that he disagrees vehemently with Netanyahu. But Netanyahu read the situation and reacted; no he did not use his imagination. But that's a good thing because he's operating in the real world. Friedman should keep his imaginary trends to himself.




3) Why Jackson Diehl is wrong


The other day Jackson Diehl wrote The real threat in Egypt: Delayed democracy:

The generals once promised to turn over power by this month. But, at best, the parliamentary elections will be completed at the end of February. The presidential election, which would finally end military rule, could come in nine months, some analysts predict; others say it could be put off 18 months while delegates dicker over the new constitution.
The great problem here is that elections are the most likely means of arresting the downward spiral. Five of the leading six candidates for president are responsible secular centrists; the runaway favorite, so far, is former foreign minister and Arab League general secretary Amr Moussa. Moussa may be a recent convert to liberal democracy, and he is known for striking populist poses against Israel. But he would almost certainly run a better government than the military and give the economy a chance to recover.
True, Islamist parties may win a plurality in the parliamentary elections. Estimates of their potential vote range from 10 to 40 percent. But that still means they would hold a minority of seats; and the Islamists themselves are divided into several factions. The strongest of them recognize that they will not be able to force a fundamentalist agenda on Egypt’s secular middle class or its large Christian minority, at least in the short and medium terms.

Eric Trager, though, worries that Egypt's new electoral system is a significant problem:

If this system is enacted, it will significantly hamper newer parties in the next parliamentary elections. The local nature of these party-list elections -- as opposed to the nationwide systems in other democracies -- makes it unlikely that small and still-forming parties will be able to compete effectively. Even in those districts where they might field multiple candidates, they would have trouble surpassing the relatively high thresholds that the largest remainder system implies.
At the same time, the party-list structure significantly advantages the Freedom and Justice Party, the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) faction that remains Egypt's only political force with significant organizational capabilities (apart from former NDP parliamentarians). Although the MB recently announced that it would run for only 40 percent of the parliamentary seats, it will likely dominate a much larger share of the legislature through its stewardship of the National Democratic Alliance for Egypt -- an electoral bloc that has attracted more than thirty parties hoping to benefit from the MB's political prowess. Most of these smaller parties stand to win only a handful of seats, however, because the Wafd Party, the MB's primary partner in the alliance, is likely to run for an additional 33.5 percent of the seats.
These percentages may grow even larger, especially if the new election laws lead more parties to jump on the MB's bandwagon. For example, the Egyptian Bloc -- a coalition of mostly liberal and leftist parties -- has just signaled that it might want to run in tandem with the Democratic Alliance, providing further indication that the presumptive new system heavily favors the Brotherhood.

4) Why Anthony Shadid is wrong


Anthony Shadid writes a generally uncritical profile of Recep Erdogan and his government, In Riddle of Mideast Upheaval, Turkey Offers Itself as an Answer:

One Turkish newspaper, supportive of Mr. Erdogan, called the visits the beginning “of a new era in our region.” An Egyptian columnist praised what he called Mr. Erdogan’s “leadership qualities.” And days later, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu spoke boldly of an axis between Egypt and Turkey, two of the region’s most populous and militarily powerful countries, that would underpin a new order in the region, one in which Israel would stay on the margins until it made peace with its neighbors.
“What’s happening in the Middle East is a big opportunity, a golden opportunity,” a senior Turkish official said in Ankara, the capital. He called Turkey “the new kid on the block.”

However as Daniel Pipes observes is Turkey going rogue?

Turkish hostility has renewed Israel's historically warm relations with the Kurds and turned around its cool relations with Greece, Cyprus, and even Armenia. Beyond cooperation locally, this grouping will make life difficult for the Turks in Washington.

Declaring Israel isolated doesn't by itself, marginalize Israel.

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Watcher's Council Nominations - Apples n' Honey Edition

Welcome to the Watcher's Council, a blogging group consisting of some of the most incisive blogs in the 'sphere, and the longest running group of its kind in existence. Every week, the members nominate two posts each, one written by themselves and one written by someone from outside the group for consideration by the whole Council.Then we vote on the best two posts, with the results appearing on Friday.

Council News:

First off, a shout out from me to the Council for their assistance and good will this week...much appreciated! And for those of you whom celebrate it, L'Shanah Tovah Tikatevu.

This week, The Mellow Jihadi, The Grouch, Liberty's Spirit and Capitalist Preservation took advantage of my generous offer of link whorage and earned honorable mention status.

You can, too! Want to see your work appear on the Watcher’s Council homepage in our weekly contest listing? Didn’t get nominated by a Council member? No worries.

Simply head over to the ‘Contact Me’ page at Joshuapundit and post a link to the piece you want considered along with an e-mail address ( which won't be published) in the comments section no later than Monday 6PM PST to be considered for our honorable mention category, and return the favor by creating a post on your site linking to the Watcher’s Council contest for the week.

It's a great way of exposing your best work to Watcher’s Council readers and Council members. while grabbing the increased traffic and notoriety. And how good is that, eh?

So, let's see what we have this week....

Council Submissions

• Joshuapundit-Can Israel Survive?



• The Noisy Room – Man of the Hour – Herman Cain



• Bookworm Room – Elizabeth Warren -- mob boss



• GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD – Instability Arc



• The Glittering Eye -The Other Buffett Rule



• The Political Commentator – White House shills defecting as AP debunks the President on taxes!



• The Razor – The French Lady of the Mountains



• New Zeal – Red Reps 14: Scoop! Arizona Rep. Raul Grijalva's Communist Party Connections



• VA Right! - Scott Brown Opponent Elizabeth Warren Is an Idiot! The Factory PAID for the IMPROVEMENTS!



• Rhymes With Right – Court Upholds Rule Of Law, Union Complains



• Right Truth – Hooking Up With Fox News, Google Is Not Stupid



• Simply Jews – Iranian army parading into the future



• The Colossus of Rhodey – I wonder about this



• Snapped Shot – Social Awesomeness

Honorable Mentions

• The Grouch - Suddenly Obama is Worried About Ventilation?



• The Mellow Jihadi-Vladimir Putin, Lover



• Liberty's Spirit - Irvine 11 Guilty Guilty Guilty



• Capitalist Preservation - Mrs Obama, mmmmmm! You sure look smokin' hot in that outfit!

Non-Council Submissions

• Milpundit – Many Are The Armies of Darkness submitted by Joshuapundit



• Sultan Knish –Serfs In Warrenville submitted by The Noisy Room



• The Diplomat-U.S. takes gloves off with Pakistan submitted by Bookworm Room



• Foreign Affairs – Admiral Mullen Takes on The ISI submitted by GrEaT sAtAn”S gIrLfRiEnD



• Conservative Black Chick – Obama to Blacks: Take Off Your Bedroom Slippers; Stop Complaining submitted by The Glittering Eye



• Rightwing Nuthouse -Vladimir Putin: Act II submitted by The Political Commentator



• Sipsey Street Irregulars –U.S. Gov't used an ATF employee to buy weapons with taxpayer money & walk them -- without help from straw buyers! submitted by The Razor



• Jihad Watch – Sharif El-Gamal, the man behind the Islamic supremacist Ground Zero Mosque, has an extensive criminal past submitted by VA Right!



• Gonzalo Lira – What I learned AT Dartmouth submitted by Rhymes with Right



• Right, Wing-Nut! -Rick Perry: An Honest Supporter of Israel, and The Jews.... submitted by Right Truth



• Mick Hartley – Making the wrong decision submitted by Simply Jews



• Discriminations – Post- Post-Partisan Obama And The Confederate Races Of America submitted by The Colossus of Rhodey



• The Grouch – Reassessing the Republican Candidates submitted by The Watcher



• Right Planet – Cultural Marxism and the Death of Belief submitted by The Watcher



• John Hawkins/Pajamas Media – Hey Lady Gaga, Kids Have a Time-Tested Answer for Bullies: Punch Them in the Mouth submitted by The Watcher



• Ted's Take – Class Warfare - Yuck! submitted by The Watcher

Enjoy! And don't forget to follow us on Facebook and Twitter..'cause we're cool like that!

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Israeli PM Netanyahu: "No More Settlement Freezes"

Israeli PM Benyamin Netanyahu showed a bit of rare spunk today when the usual suspects criticized Israel's decision to build 1,100 homes in Gilo, a predominantly Jewish suburb of Jerusalem that Israel has already annexed.

Saeb Erekat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, said the new housing units represented "1,100 'noes' to the Quartet statement" urging a resumption of frozen peace talks.

"Israel is challenging the will of the international community with the continued settlement policy," Nabil Abu Rdainah, an Abbas spokesman, said.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the settlement plan was counter-productive to reviving peace talks.

Richard Miron, spokesman for U.N. Middle East envoy Robert Serry, called Israel's decision "very concerning." He said settlement activity "undermines the prospect of resuming negotiations and reaching a two-state solution to the conflict."{...}

In London, Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague said settlement expansion was illegal and "corrodes trust and undermines the basic principle of land for peace. We call on the Government of Israel to revoke this decision."

U.S. State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said "we are deeply disappointed" and that Washington has "long urged both parties to avoid actions that could undermine trust, including in Jerusalem."

Funny, these people have such a huge objection to Jews building homes in an area that's going to remain part of Israel no matter what, but none of them has ever said anything about a 'Palestinian' moratorium on rocket attacks, on the constant hateful incitement in 'Palestine's' mosques, schools and media or on the salaries the 'Palestinian Authority' pay terrorists convicted of murder and serving sentences in Israeli prisons.

Netanyahu's response to this was "“We already gave at the office,” referring to the unilateral 10- month settlement freeze he initiated in November 2008 at President Obama's request as a concession to get the 'Palestinians' back to peace negotiations. It failed miserably, and Netanyahu just let the world know that he's not going to play sucker again.

“We plan in Jerusalem. We build in Jerusalem. Period. The same way Israeli governments have been doing for years – since the end of the 1967 war".

“We build in Jewish neighborhoods, the Arabs build in Arab neighborhoods – that is the way the life of this city goes on and develops for its Jewish and non- Jewish residents alike.”

Netanyahu said Americans “know this; they have followed this a long time. There is really nothing new.”

"You can’t build hope on the foundation of lies,” he continued, adding that the Palestinians’ inability to utter the words “the Jewish people” or “the Jewish state” is not something that can be glossed over.

“There is a problem there, and you can’t build hope by shutting your eyes and saying it doesn’t matter,” Netanyahu said.

“Of course it matters – this is what this conflict is all about. It is not about the settlements; it is about the Jewish state. And it must be said over and over again.”

A word about Gilo, by the way. Like all the other so-called 'settlements, it was built on land that was either vacant, Jewish owned originally or Jordanian government land seized in Jordan's occupation of Judea and Samaria in 1948. There was no Arab town or private property that was cleared and no Arab residents dispossesed to make room for it.

Terrorism and incitement or building homes for people...which do you think is more damaging to peace?

Kudos to PM Netanyahu for making the distinction clear.

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Germany Spanks Geithner,EU For 'Stupid Idea' On Euro Bailout

German finance minister Wolfgang Schauble had some harsh words for the plan US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner brought over from the Obama Administration to inflate the EU's bail-out machinery (EFSF) beyond its €440bn lending limit..you know, sort of what President Obama has done here.

I don't understand how anyone in the European Commission can have such a stupid idea. The result would be to endanger the AAA sovereign debt ratings of other member states. It makes no sense," he said.

Mr Schauble told Washington to mind its own business after President Barack Obama rebuked EU leaders for failing to recapitalise banks and allowing the debt crisis to escalate to the point where it is "scaring the world".

"It's always much easier to give advice to others than to decide for yourself. I am well prepared to give advice to the US government," he said.

Ziemlich klar!

As I mentioned before, the Germans have finally revolted and there no way they're going to trash their own economy to bail out Greece, Spain, Ireland or Italy any further. The first scheme, involving eurobonds with Germany's tax payers subsidizing the interest rates was DOA, and pumping up the EFSF artificially isn't going to fly either.

The euro is doomed...it's only survived this long because the Fed is propping the euro up with 'dollar swaps', which means the Fed is buying euros for dollars at an artificial rate to keep it from crashing through the floor. That's literally the Old Jack and the Beanstalk trade in real life, with billions at stake.

Greece will almost certainly default, even though Greek PM George Papandreou vowed that his country would honor its austerity agreement. However, it's highly unlikely, and once Greece goes, it will likely take the rest of the euro zone with it, because it will provide a precedent to the other member nations who are now in deep economic trouble.

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Obama's Rosh Hashanah Greeting - And The Translation

And now the translation:

"Damn, is it that time again?

I gotta remind all you Jews about something..remember, you're liberals and you're not gonna diss the first black president, are you? How would that look, if you stray off the Plantation? Remember, not only are you liberals, but you're rich, so you owe all those struggling communities not only here but worldwide.Let the guilt flow.

Poll numbers among y'all are down, and so are financial contributions so it's important that I tell you at this time about my commitment to Israel. I mean, it's what you wanna hear, right? And I'm very much about giving people what they want at election time. Hey, would I lie?

Keep in mind, with the Arab Spring I helped set off brewing and all those Islamists taking power, Israel's gonna need some friends to pressure Israel to surrender for its own good. And who better than me, your favorite community organizer? So let's just forget about everything that's happened between Israel and my administration over the past three years and just concentrate on getting me re-elected.

I did the usual conference call this year with some of your rabbis, so they're well armed with talking points to work into their sermons this year. So remember, vote Democrat, and most importantly vote Obama. Allahu Akba- uhh, Happy New Year. Later"

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Elizabeth Warren's 'Philosophy' Translated Into Simple Terms

( h/t, Woolie via American Digest)

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Soccer Dad's Mideast Media Sampler 9/27/11‏

Today's sampler and analysis of Mideast media content from my pal Soccer Dad:

1) Ellison elides


I won't critique every aspect of Rep. Keith Ellison's op-ed Support the Palestinian Bid for Statehood, but two points he makes caught my eye.

And in this case, Arab countries that have never recognized Israel would implicitly be doing so when they voted to recognize a Palestinian state that envisioned itself beside Israel in a two-state solution to their conflict. That in itself would be a breakthrough, confirming Israel’s solid standing in the region.

This is hopelessly convoluted. Ellison is arguing that Arab votes for statehood for Palestine would implicitly mean that those countries recognized Israel and characterizes that legerdemain as a breakthrough. Who's he kidding? When Thomas Friedman launched the Saudi "peace initiative" the members of the Arab league couldn't even agree to promise normalization with Israel. If the Arab world couldn't come to expressly promise normalization then, how would a vote on a different topic (Palestinian nationhood) mean anything?


Later on Ellison writes:

Criticisms of the Palestinian Authority’s desire for the United Nations to act include assertions that this approach to statehood is unilateral and precludes negotiations with Israel. Yet the process of gaining recognition from the United Nations Security Council is multilateral by definition.

Palestinian statehood was to come about by way of bilateral agreements between the Palestinian Authority and Israel. In that context, the UDI as it's called is unilateral. Ellison is simply changing the context. This isn't a serious argument it's sophistry.


There's plenty more to argue with. I don't have the stomach to do a complete job.


2) Mearsheimer digs deep


Once Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer submitted to an interview with Robert Fisk that was illustrated with an American that had a filed of 6 - not 5 - pointed stars, I saw no reason to give them the benefit of the doubt about their motives. Now Mearsheimer has written a defense of his decision to write a forward to a book written by Gilad Atzmon. (via memeorandum) David Bernstein of the Volokh Conspiracy critiques Mearsheimer's defense:

Mearsheimer is not content to argue, as he does, that he didn’t know Atzmon from a hole-in-the-head, and endorsed the book because he found it provocative and interesting. If he had limited himself to this, he could have then added that he wasn’t aware of Atzmon’s anti-Semitic background and didn’t read the book in that light. Now that he knows, he regrets his association with Atzmon and the book.Nope. Mearsheimer actually defends Atzmon from the charge of anti-Semitism. So here’s my challenge to Prof. Mearsheimer: I will give you space on the Volokh Conspiracy to explain how you can absolve Atzmon from anti-Semitism after reading this excerpt from an interview with Atzmon, not coincidentally hosted on the website of notorious anti-Semite “Israel Shamir”.

After reading the quotes, I don't if anyone could explain that.


3) Stifling Oren


Back in February the Washington Post, in an editorial criticized the decision to prosecute 11 Muslim students for disrupting a speech given by Israeli Ambassador Michael Oren.

The university suspended the Muslim Student Union from campus for the fall semester; each of the offending Irvine students was disciplined. (The university declines to provide details because of federal privacy rights.) Yet the Irvine 11 - as they have become known - now face criminal misdemeanor charges for "conspiracy to disturb a meeting" and one misdemeanor count of "disturbance of a meeting." According to the prosecutor's office, each student could face up to six months in jail, if convicted.
In a Feb. 4 news release announcing the charges, Orange County District Attorney Tony Rackauckas asserted that the students' actions represented "a clear violation of the law and failing to bring charges against this conduct would amount to a failure to uphold the Constitution." Not true. Prosecutors make judgments all the time about whether justice would be served by trying particular cases. These types of disruptions are most frequently not prosecuted unless they result in threats or physical violence.
Mr. Rackauckas has made his point; he should now use the power of his office wisely, give the students a warning and drop the charges. The protesters, too, have much to learn. Some have characterized the episode as trampling on the students' free-speech rights. That would have been the case had police officers tried to keep them from picketing outside of the auditorium during Mr. Oren's visit. That is not what happened. Instead, the students abused their privileges in an attempt to squelch the free-speech rights of others.

Given that the editorial acknowledged that the students went too far, I find it hard to justify the argument to drop the prosecution.


Last week ten of the students were convicted. Even with Robert Mackey promoted to the Guardian, The Lede blog at the New York Times can be counted on to give a fair hearing to the anti-Israel side of the story:

Reached after the verdict on Friday, a lawyer for the students, Jacqueline Goodman, said they had acted because it was an opportunity to “speak directly to Michael Oren” about the violence in Gaza. “They couldn’t have foreseen they’d be convicted of a crime,” she said.
Ms. Goodman said they planned to appeal the decision.
At Sunday’s gathering in Orange County, Ms. Goodman reiterated that pledge. “We’re going to stand up and fight this,” she said, “even if it means going to the Supreme Court.”

The ADL provides background that shows that the Muslim Student Association isn't so innocent. Furthermore:

The university's investigation into the matter uncovered evidence that MSU organized a calculated demonstration at Ambassador Oren's speech in violation of university policy against disorderly conduct, obstructing university activities, furnishing false information and other campus policies.

And an interesting perspective from the Jewish Journal:

“Every time there’s an event they’re opposed to, they disrupt it,” said Pam Chozen, a Laguna Beach resident who said she had felt concerned for her personal safety. “No one from the other side would think of disrupting an MSU event.”

Prof Eugene Volokh, though, found the prosecution and conviction to be sound.

I’m inclined to think that the situation here is quite different from that in In re Kay. First, the customs of presentation at universities seem to me to be much less tolerant of heckling; there is plenty of time for audience participation during Q & A, but shouting during the speech is not at all customary. (Perhaps the California Supreme Court got it wrong in interpreting the statute in a way that requires a determination of the particular customs of a certain kind of event; but that seems to be required under the Kay decision.)
Second, and relatedly, the university administrators repeatedly stressed to students that such interruptions were improper. To the extent that Kay focused on what was said by the authorities during the meeting as evidence of custom (“Indeed, the principal speaker at the rally, an elected public official, stated that the relevant custom sanctioned the demonstrative conduct of petitioners as a legitimate means of expression”), this cuts the other way here.
Third, while it’s hard to tell exactly how disruptive the hecklers were in Kay, it appears from accounts of the Irvine meeting and the court’s account in Kay that the Irvine hecklers were much more disruptive, and did indeed “substantially impair[] the conduct of the meeting.”

What's interesting here, is that Volokh writes that the Oren speech included a scheduled Q & A, as that would be the standard format for such a talk in an academic setting. An account from Stand with Us, confirms that a Q & A session was scheduled.


This means that the students' lawyer lied about the heckling being the only way the protesters could address Oren, to The Lede, which, of course, published the statement without challenge.


In a related article, Stanley Fish the Opinionator at the New YorkTimes asks Why has the conflict between Israel and much of the Arab world become a third-rail topic in the academy?

I would argue that what's happened is that due to a number of factors (Daniel Pipes considers a number of them) the study of the Middle East has become increasingly politicized. Scholarship has been replaced by political correctness. It isn't that the Middle East conflict has become a "third rail" but that those who could challenge the corruption don't.


4) The only thing he should be managing is his anger


The New York Times and Washington Post carried slightly different accounts of Turkish PM Recep Erdogan's encounter with UN security.


Neil MacFarquhar reported for the New York Times:

Mr. Erdogan was having a tête-à-tête with President Jalal Talabani of Iraq on the obscure fourth floor of the General Assembly hall — tiny meeting spaces have been tucked into every nook and cranny because the Secretariat Building is gutted for renovations.
Learning that the Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas, was making his address demanding full United Nations membership for a state of Palestine, Mr. Erdogan, a big fan, rushed to the nearest entrance to take Turkey’s seat on the main floor.
But the fourth floor is actually the visitors’ gallery, with no access to the main floor, and it was packed. So a United Nations security guard refused to let the Turkish leader pass. When Mr. Erdogan pressed forward, the guard pushed him (by most accounts), and then a fracas erupted that was audible four flours below.

A UN security guard was sent to the hospital. According to the New York Times, the Ban Ki Moon apologized to Erdogan.


The AP has some additional details but couldn't confirm the apology.

The tumult caused a security alert that led to diplomats outside the General Assembly hall being ordered out of U.N. headquarters to wait in a steady rainstorm until the situation was under control.
The sources say that initially as many as nine U.N. security guards were suspended but after a protest, they were called back to work and placed on administrative duty, out of uniform and off the beat as the matter is investigated. It was not immediately known if the Turkish security guards have been similarly reassigned or punished.
One diplomat said he witnessed Turkish security officials being involved in another incident during a high-level meeting at the U.N. on Libya last Monday. The diplomat said a Turkish security member went under the rope in a cordoned-off corridor as U.S. President Barack Obama was about to arrive and was confronted by U.N. security guards. There was some pushing and shoving until Turkey’s U.N. ambassador stepped in and calmed the situation, the diplomat said.

I'm sure that the Turkish security guards were not punished. If anything, I'd guess that they were rewarded. It sounds as if Erdogan and company think that the regular rules don't apply to them.


Yesterday the New York Times also reported In Riddle of Mideast Upheaval, Turkey Offers Itself as an Answer, a paean to the vision of PM Erdogan:

Not so long ago, the foreign policy of Turkey revolved around a single issue: the divided island of Cyprus. These days, its prime minister may be the most popular figure in the Middle East, its foreign minister envisions a new order there and its officials have managed to do what the Obama administration has so far failed to: position themselves firmly on the side of change in the Arab revolts and revolutions.
No one is ready to declare a Pax Turkana in the Middle East, and indeed, its foreign policy is strewn this year with missteps, crises and gains that feel largely rhetorical. It even lacks enough diplomats. But in an Arab world where the United States seems in retreat, Europe ineffectual and powers like Israel and Iran unsettled and unsure, officials of an assertive, occasionally brash Turkey have offered a vision for what may emerge from turmoil across two continents that has upended decades of assumptions.
Not unexpectedly, the vision’s center is Turkey.

There are good observations here mixed with an uncritical view of Erdogan's successes. (Omri Ceren recently argued that these successes are somewhat mixed.) But if the recent incidents at the UN are any indication, Erdogan's arrogance may well be his eventual undoing.

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Major Al-Jazeera Journalist Admits To Being Hamas Operative

Well, it's hardly unexpected that a journalist for Al Jazeera would be affiliated with a genocidal terrorist organization...

Samer Allawi confessed to being a Hamas operative after interrogation by the Shin Bet. Allawi, who identifies himself as a 'Palestinian' was arrested a month ago at his home near Nablus (Shechem).

Apparently, he was of some importance and it's certain his press credentials were quite useful to him in working for Hamas. Allawi confessed that he joined Hamas in 1993 and served until 2004 on a senior committee that oversees Hamas operations abroad and fund raises for 'operations'.

Allawi made a number of trips to Syria where he reported directly to Mousa Abu Marzook, Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal’s deputy on his activities. the Shin Bet said. Abu Marzook offered Allawi a position as Hamas’s official representative in Iran, but he claims he rejected the offer.

According to Allawi, there are a number of Hamas operatives who work fo r Al Jazeera, and he was a frequent liaison between them and the organization.

Allawi's confession was part of a plea bargain, which gained him a three-year suspended sentence.

My own opinion is that Allawi was in the 'Palestinian' occupied area in Judea and Samaria ( AKA the West Bank) carrying out another liaison mission for Hamas, and that his arrest by the Shin Bet was designed to get him out of the area.

The Current Republican Lineup...The Sale Isn't Over Yet

There's no such thing as a perfect candidate, and the recent furor over the Republican contest proves that, if not much else. No one's close to making the sale yet.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, the front runner stumbled badly in last week's debate and if he has another couple of bad outings, he could very well fade away. Not only were a number of his answers weak, but he failed to take the battle to the other candidates, leaving people wondering how he'd actually do against President Obama.

He continues to double down on the Gardisil question, and his vulnerability on the illegal alien issue has become evident and was exploited handily by Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum last week.

Not only that, but when the foreign policy finally reared its ugly head at long last, he flailed around badly:

BAIER: Which brings us to this, Governor Perry, if you were president, and you got a call at 3 am telling you that Pakistan had lost control of is nuclear weapons, at the hands of the Taliban, what would be your first move?

PERRY: Well obviously, before you ever get to that point you have to build a relationship in that region. That’s one of the things that this administration has not done. Yesterday, we found out through Admiral Mullen that Haqqani has been involved with — and that’s the terrorist group directly associated with the Pakistani country. So to have a relationship with India, to make sure that India knows that they are an ally of the United States.

For instance, when we had the opportunity to sell India the upgraded F-16′s, we chose not to do that. We did the same with Taiwan. The point is, our allies need to understand clearly that we are their friends, we will be standing by there with them.

Today, we don’t have those allies in that region that can assist us if that situation that you talked about were to become a reality.

Is Governor Perry saying that we're going to ask India or Taiwan what to do? Fine, the alliance with India definitely needs work, but we're talking about an emergency situation - our enemies just overthrew a government that wasn't at all friendly to us anyway and got themselves a nuclear arsenal.

This is not the sound of a president-in-waiting.

Former Senator Rick Santorum's answer was almost as bad:

To answer the question on Pakistan, which I’m not too sure was answered. The bottom line is, that we should be establishing relationships in Pakistan with allies of ours, folks like relationships with President Musharraf who we had in the past with others in that country so if in fact something like that would occur we could work in concert to make sure that that coup could be overturned and make sure those nuclear weapon do not fall in those hands.

But working with allies at that point is the last thing we want to do. We want to work in that country to make sure the problem is defused.

Talking about not answering the question! So in Senator Santorum's world, he's just been informed that the Taliban, the Haqqani Group or Lashkar-e-Taiba just took over Pakistan's nuclear facilities in Waziristan and he's going to depend on deposed President Musharraf to help us out? "Quick, get Pervez on the phone.Maybe he can put together a counter-coup."

The fact is that when you have a 3 AM call like that, 'defusing' the problem is already too late and so is talking to 'allies'. It means there's been a civil war,and our enemies just won. My answer, had I been on that stage would have been to say that a faction who are not our friends taking over Pakistan's nukes is quite probable, and as president I would have had a contingency plan ready and waiting with our military for destroying them completely on the ground the minute they fell into questionable hands. The fact that two presidential candidates would go into an Obama-like dithering on something this basic is scary, frankly.

Herman Cain, however likeable has yet to prove that he has the chops needed for the Big Job. The FOX moderators did him a great kindness by not asking him any deep foreign policy or national security questions, since he's already shown that isn't his strong point. And his 9-9-9 plan on taxes which has some merits also has a number of those awful devils in the details. That 9% national sales tax, for instance. Anyone whose seen how politicians around the world have handled a Value Added Tax ( which is essentially what Mr. Cain is proposing) ought to be damned wary of implementing it. Here's a hint; just like sales taxes in your state, they tend to go up, up, up. And it might also be noted that Cain's plan would eliminate the tax break on mortgages, thus putting the boot into an already depressed industry. My prediction is that his straw poll win in Florida will have about as much effect as Muchele Bachmann's in Iowa.

Mitt Romney is an old hand at campaigning by now, and it shows. His answers to questions are clear and obviously well thought out. Unfortunately, he has a habit of only answering half a question and glossing over the rest, and that's going to become more noticeable as time goes on, especially if he overtakes Perry as frontrunner and assumes Perry's role as punching bag for the rest.

His support for the Obama administration's Race to the Top education program is going to come back to haunt him, as will his insistence that RomneyCare's individual mandate only applies to 8% of the population. Actually, that law applies to everyone in Massachusetts. And he's also going to have to figure out how to defend himself on Bain Capital's record on outsourcing jobs.

Speaking of Michele Bachmann, as likeable as she is, she's also proven that she's not quite ready for the Top Job yet. Her positions continue to devolve into talking points, she's shown an unfortunate tendency to be gaffe-prone and continues to be willing to die on questionable hills like the one about how the Gardisil caused retardation in a child.

I'm not even going to discuss the other marginal players. None of them are going to be the GOP nominee,let alone get into the White House.

But I have a feeling that applies to the others as well, at least at the present time. None of them, in my opinion, has really made the sale yet. None of them appears to be an obvious choice for President yet, although Mitt Romney has done a fair job thus far of at least coming close. Plus, it's still very early days and the support of each candidate is still pretty soft.

The 2012 election is the GOP's to lose, but I still think we haven't seen all the candidates. With the first major test being the Iowa Caucus in February, there's plenty of time for someone else to get in.

Actually the deadline is pretty clear. To get your name on the ballot in Florida,you need to pay filing fees by October 31st. And to participate in the South Carolina primary, the last date in November 1st.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a major trick or treat in the Republican race before Halloween.

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