Monday, January 30, 2006

Agreement by Russia, China, EU and US on referral of Iran to UN Security Council

In the face of no meaningful concessions by Iran and increasing pressure by the US and EU, Russia and China finally agreed agreed to get on board at long last and back the referral of Iran's nuclear program to the UN Security Council at a Feb. 2 meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency, joining the U.S., U.K., France and Germany.

The ministers ``agreed that this week's Extraordinary IAEA Board meeting should report to the Security Council its decision on the steps required by Iran,'' a joint statement released by the U.S. said.

Sounds good, but here's the bad part: The ministers also agreed the UN Security Council should wait until another IAEA board of governors meeting on March 6 to take actual action, which could range from censure or sanctions.

As reported here, the Iranians reportedly have a nuclear weapons test scheduled to coincide with Noruz, the Persian New Year on March 2oth.

If the Iranians successfully test a nuclear weapon, that would make any sanctions the UN could apply moot and meaningless...assuming the Russians, the Chinese and others abided by them in the first place. I wouldn't bet on it. Not at all.

Oil's too good a lubricant for that sort of thing.

This isn't over yet, by any means.

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