Thursday, January 26, 2006

Connecting a few dots on Iran

Some seemingly unrelated events offer some interesting possiblities on Iran.

The first was the US warning to India that its failure to back sanctions on Iran could lead to `difficulties' with the new US/India nuclear energy program The Hindu : National : Left condemns Mulford statement as reported in these pages J O S H U A P U N D I T: INDIA, US ON TRACK FOR NUKE DEAL, STRATEGIC TIES

The second was King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia's visits to both India and ChinaSaudi King in Delhi with a 250-strong delegation pledging new ties and even hinting that India could get observer status at the OIC (India has a population of 100 million Muslims).

Sounds like the carrot and the stick aproach to me. Is King Abdullah helping Bush shore up support for sanctions against Iran by guaranteeing to replace the Iranian oil these rapidly growing economies depend on?

In other news, the Iranians were said to be `warming' to a Russian proposal to enrich uranium on Russian soil.
Top News Article |

In reality, the mullahs have very little to lose in okaying the Russian proposal and only time to gain. The Iranians might seriously explore the Russian option, to find out what they can learn from Moscow to improve their enrichment techniques. And enrichment in Russia wouldn't stop the Iranians fom continuing further research and development towards nuclear weapons on their own, especially considering that a certain amount of cheating and dissembling with the Russians - for a price- can be expected.

Obviously the Russians, Chinese and the EU seem anxious to find a way to avoid any difficult decisions on a nuclear Iran.

It remains to be seen what the US and/or Israel will do in this situation.

No comments: