Thursday, March 02, 2006

Don't underestimate Iran

El Jefe Maximo had an extremely interesting post on Iran's military plans and capabilities, using Newssmax and Kenneth Timmerman as sources. You can read his analysis here Kingdom of Chaos: Iranian Military Plans

Apparently Timmerman and newsmax claim to be in receipt of a copy of provisional plans by Iran to close the Straits of Hormuz, in the event of US/Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. And El Jefe goes on to analyze Iran's military capabilities and probable strategy and IMHO, he is underestimates them in several regards.

"...if they really think they can win an air/naval/missile contest, the Iranian staffers are smoking crack... unless that is, Iran has a big power backer. ..Do they ?....If the Iranians are foolish, they will take our President's sinking poll numbers, and our happy UN talk, much too much to heart." And he refers to Iran's Ahmadinejad as a `yokel'.

Here's how I differ.

With all respect, Ahmadinejad is far from a yokel, and has calculated things very nicely, or so it seems. I wouldn't underestimate him, or Iran.

First of all, let's remember that Ahmadinejad is a hired hand, who takes his orders from Khamani and the Council of Guardians anyway..but that said, let's look at what has been accomplished by Iran so far..

First, Iran has managed to co-opt the position of the major power in the Muslim world, and now controls the Teheran-Damascus-Hezbollah axis, as well as having a great deal of influence over Hamas and the Palestinians.

That was the reason for all of the anti-Israel rhetoric, which struck a resounding chord throughout the Muslim world. Iran knows very well that Israel has second strke cpability and that even in the event of a successful nuclear attack on Israel the carnage in Iran would be horrendous. Instead, they will fight to the last Palestinian or Hezbollah fighter, and reap the credit.

Second, Iran has progressed in its nuclear weapons program to the point of being ready to start testing; it can already enrich its own uranium. And Iran does have sattelite capacity, to answer another of El jefe's questions...the Russians built them one

Third, it has allied itself with al- Qaeda in its quest for its real agenda and area of growth. It might be fun to burn up a few million Jews in Israel, but Iran's real area of expansion which is the energy rich Caucasus and central Asia.

Fourth, it has successfully split off Russia from the West, even while sponsoring attacks in the region, like the one at Nalchick last year. Iran has now secured its eastern border, just as Hitler did with Stalin in the 1939 Comintern Pact. Just as Stalin did, Putin has become Iran's backer and will continue aiding the Mullahs until the Iranians are ready to attack what's left of Russia.J O S H U A P U N D I T: The new Russia/Iran nukes deal..and what's behind it

Iran will not endanger the Gulf of Hormuz until the last extremity, because that would cut off its own cash flow. And there is no need, because I'm not certain that President Bush will attack Iran unless something blatant happens. If that was the plan, he could already have done so. He might instead attempt to isolate Iran and go for face saving if meaningless sanctions..because President Bush has a vested interest in keeping the oil flowing as well..and so do the Saudis.J O S H U A P U N D I T: True fiction: the US. the UN and Iran

The key to dealing with Iran would indeed involve a pre-emptive strike, but in my opinion, the most productive use of US power would be to not only take out what nuclear facilities we can reach but Iran's oil fields as well. Iran's challenge is both as a nuclear power and as an exporter of jihad. Simply striking at Iran's nuclear facilities merely buys time until they're replaced. Cutting off the cash flow resolves both problems.

1 comment:

Dan Zaremba said...

Once again I fully agree wit hyour analysis.
Perhaps the Iranian "antics" may seem primitive but they WORK.
So where does it leave us - sophisticated losers.