Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Hillary Wins Pennsylvania

Senator Hillary Clinton decisively beat Senator Barack Obama in the Pennsylvania primary today.

The final vote looks like 55% to 45%, a ten point spread.

The exit polling data was particularly revealing.

Hillary won decisively among females, 57% to 43%, while Obama finished slightly ahead in male votes, 52% to 47%. The voting population in the primary was 59% female.

Barack Obama carried the black vote, as expected by 84%..but they're only 15% of the electorate. Clinton carried the white vote decisively, 81% of the electorate, with her percentages rising to 56% by the time you hit the 30-45 age bracket and geting to something like 62% and up in the older white demographics. She also took Pennsylvania's union vote, and the Catholic vote by an astounding 74%.

So how do we translate this?

Simple really,and exactly as I discussed earlier; Obama does well in states with a large black population and in states ( mostly states that normally go for the GOP, like Idaho and Nebraska) with few blacks but concentrated small blocks of upscale white Democrats.

Hillary continues to do well among women, especially older women, Latinos, and blue collar white Democrats, especially in traditionally blue states like California and New York. Her surge among Catholic Democrats in Pennsylvania is a new trend.

Hillary's only route to the Democratic nomination is to convince the superdelegates prior to the convention that Obama is incapable of winning the general because he is unable to capture votes in those groups. A ten point win in Pennsylvania keeps her in the game and gives that line of reasoning a fair amount of credibility.

Another big factor was that this win came after Obama outspent the relatively broke Clinton campaign by a huge margin and blanketed the state with ads.

The odds are still against Lady Macbeth walking away with the Donkey crown - the Democrats need a monolithic black vote, funding by George Soros and the energy of the nutroots at places like MoveOn to win in November, and they may have problems obtaining those items unless Obama is the nominee...and on top of the ticket.

On the other hand, an Obama candidacy is likely to shed Latino, Catholic and blue collar white votes. Which could lead to problems in November in places like California,Pennsylvania and Ohio.

So..Scylla or Charibdus, the frying pan or the fire?

Should be an interesting show...

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