Thursday, February 17, 2011

Iranian Ships Update: Confusion Over Suez Canal Transit

There are two conflicting reports out regarding the two Iranian warships en route to Syria.

Earlier this morning, a report came out the the Iranians had withdrawn their request to transit the Canal..which would have most likely have occurred because Egypt denied them access at Israel's request.

A few hours later, another report came out that the Iranians were denying they had withdrawn their request and that the two warships were proceeding as scheduled:

Earlier on Thursday, a senior Suez Canal official said two Iranian warships had withdrawn their application to transit the waterway following expressions of concern by Israel over the plans.

The official said no reason was given for Thursday's decision to withdraw the application. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to the media, also said it was not known if the vessels intended to transit the waterway at a later date.

The official identified the two vessels as Alvand, a frigate, and Kharq, a supply ship, and said they were en route to Syria. He said they were now in an area near the Saudi Red Sea port city of Jiddah.

Egypt's official MENA news agency, however, quoted Ahmed al-Manakhly, a senior Suez Canal official, as denying that the waterway's management had received any requests by Iranian warships to transit the canal.

So no one knows if it's on or not at this point.

That includes the clueless Obama Administration:
State Department spokesman Philip J. Crowley said the US was monitoring the ships’ movements.

“There are two ships in the Red Sea – what their intention is, what their destination is, I can’t say,” Crowley told reporters in Washington.

“We’ll be watching to see what they do. We always watch what Iran is doing.” He declined to give further details.

Keep in mind that a single phone call from Washington telling the Egyptians not to let the Iranian warships through because of 'safety concerns' or risk that $2 billion stipend would have stopped the Iranian ships forthwith.

We'll see what develops.

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B.Poster said...

"Keep in mind that a single phone call from Washington telling the Egyptians not to let the Iranian warships through because of 'safety concerns' or risk that $2 billion stipend would have stopped the Iranians forthwith."

No it wouldn't have. What likely would have happened is one of two things. 1.)The Egyptians would have told the Americans to take their worthless money and SHOVE IT!! 2.)The Egyptians would have told the Americans if they up the amount of the annual payment to $$ billion that they will consider the request. 3.)The Egyptians would have told the Americans to SHOVE IT and would have gone to the media and complained about America is trying to "pressure" them or something to this effect. The media eats taht sort of thing and the Egyptian leaders are hailed as heroes for resising said "pressure." 4.)The Egyptians deny the Iranian request because they were going to do it regardless of what America said or did and then blame American pressure on the decision. This allows them to save face in the eyes of the Arab world and the world news media.

No, a mere phone call telling the Egyptians not to allow the Iranian ships through or risk a loss of American foreign aid is not going to stop the ships from coming through. In fact, the opposite would probably occurr. Such a call would be deemed as insulting to the Egyptians and would only strengthen their resolve to allow the ships through.

Our best course of action is the same as it should have been for the "revolution." STAY OUT OF IT!!

gerard2004 said...

Egypt now confirms it has received a request thursday from iran

B.Poster said...

Errors in my previous post: Four possibilties instead of two. Instead of $$ that should have been $4 billion. In other words, the Egyptians might tell the Americans that if they will up the annual payment to them from $2 billion to $4 billion they will consider an American request not to allow the Iranian war ships through the Suez Canal.

Essentially the annual payments to Egypt are blackmail. The Egyptians will simply tell the Americans to shove it when it the arrangement no longer suits them. Even without the "revolution" Egypt would have eventually cut America off. The revolution may have sped things up a bit.

Additional possibility: the Egyptians try to block the passage of the Iranian ships and the Iranains run the blockade. This could lead to a shooting war. The thinking might be to try and get the Americans involved. I think it goes without saying that we know whose side the media will take in this, the Iranian side of course.

A shooting war with America is what Iran wants any way. All this time the punditocracy has been working tirelessly to undercut an American military option against Iran and have largely succeeded. A military action by America against Iran was never a serious consideration by anyone any way. What the pundits really needed to be worrying about was an Iranian attack on America and how we might prevent and if it happens how might we respond. By undercutting America's military options these pundits have eliminated a valuable avenue that America may have had for its national defense or otherwise advancing its interests.

Perhaps it was deliberate. Perhaps not. In any event, the end result is clear. America no longer has a viable military option against Iran or really any one else for that matter right now. The Iranians know this, as does everyone else. This means Iran is free to act with impunity against America and its interests any where in the world and at any time.

Nice job people!! They're either evil or grossly incompetent. In any event, its absolutely breath taking.