Monday, February 21, 2011

Supporting Regime Change In Libya - A Powerful Opportunity

The United States has a unique and brilliant opportunity to entirely change our feckless image in the Middle East at one swoop - and get rid of a dangerous enemy to the US at the same time.

In view of accounts of Khaddaffi using helicopter gunships and even jet fighters against his own people, Libya's Deputy Ambassador at the UN Ibrahim Dabbashi begged the Western powers to help the Libyan opposition by enforcing a no fly zone over the country.

It's an absolutely splendid idea.

No only would it keep Khaddaffi from using his air force to brutalize his own people, but it would prevent him from escaping justice (assuming he hasn't already) and from receiving foreign mercenaries and supplies.

But most importantly, it would show the Libyan people and the entire Arab world that the United States is on the side of freedom, something that goes entirely against years of propaganda they've been fed.

The fact that it would spell a nasty end to Khaddaffi is another upside. There is little downside risk, and we also have three aircraft carriers in range of Libya at this time.

We could also airlift food and medical supplies, with each crate marked prominently - "a gift from the American people".

Can you imagine the impact this would have, not only in Libya but throughout the region?

Here’s a tweet from Tripolitanian:

BarackObama #Libyans are dying, we won't forget your silence. You're a coward. What you said in Cairo was all an act.

President Obama, where the hell are you? Or is the fact that Khaddaffi is an enemy of America mean your going to sit back and do nothing? As usual?

please helps me write more gooder!


louielouie said...

i don't think a gift from america would do a darn thing. see VDH previous comment. i had an iranian in my store a few years ago say that khomeni was put in power in iran by the same sources.
brain washing 101.
a gift i would send "these people" would be from the 4th ID, along with all their big toys, that should have been done 10 years ago.

B.Poster said...

I like the sentiment but must disagree. There would be enormous risks to America in getting involved in this.

First of all, America does not have the military assets available right now to enforce a no fly zone over Libya right now. Even if did, the American people are on to going to support such an action. It would also result in massive US casualties as the Libyans acted to try and beat the no fly zone and other attempts at blockading the country. This would further weaken the support of the American people for such an operation.

This assumes we actually have the resources to support the type of operation you suggest. We don't. As such, no one is seriously going to suggest it. If Mr. Obama suggested it, I would hope our military commanders would have the courage to resign rather than commit our brave warriors to yet another war on the other side of the globe when we are already spread to thing as it is. If they didn't I think the American people would likely show the leaders the door. They're not going to support yet another war on the other side of the world.

Secondly, if America is seen on the side of the opposition this strengthens the pro-Khaddfi forces. His people would then be able to accuse the resistance of being "American puppets" and the like. This would hand him a huge propaganda victory and make it easier for his forces to crush the uprising.

Now, if it were possible, we might identify groups within the oppositon that might represent the needs of the Libyian people while respecting our needs. The problem with this is we would need to be able to identify the groups, distribute aid to them, and it will need to be done covertly. This is a very tall order. The American intellegence services simply don't have the competence to be able to pull off such an operation. Even if they did, the risk of getting caught would be enormous!! If we're caught, the Libyians would have a huge propaganda victory and in the eyes of the world they would be justified in bringing the fight to America's shores.

America's armed forces are already worn thin, face huge equipment shortagess, and the equipment they have is growing obsolete. As such, a war with Libya would not be a good idea right now.

Our best bet is to stay out of this. Redeploy our forces to our borders, develop our own oil and gas reserves, and build more refineries. Doing this gives us the best chance of defending our country, our people, and our way of life. It has the added event of giving us a decent chance to grow our economy as well. At least its a better bet than any thing we are currently doing.

B.Poster said...


I have a question here. The main stream media doesn't seem to be asking this. Just who is organizing, funding, and directing this revolution? This is a massive undertaking that would require significant planning and organization. Whose behind this? I think experential common sense should tell us this is not "spontaneous" as the media likes to tell us.

My first thought was the Russians are behind this. Its easy to understand why someone would want to udnermine the likes of Tunisia, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and other so called "moderate" Arab states who are "allies" of America. Its also quite easy to do, as these states are pariahs in the news media mainly because they are "allies" of America.

Destabilizing the likes of Libya, Iran, Syria, and other overt enemies of America is not so easy. These states have broad support throughout the world and their status as an enemy of America certainly helps them with the world media. Furthermore we would expect Russia and China to come to their aid. At least, we would expect Russia to. As such, we would not expect a revolution to get off the ground in any of these nations.

Sorry about the length of this post. Whose leading this thing? Your thoughts? Perhaps your "little birdies" might have some thoughts on this.

Freedom Fighter said...

Poster: What risks? Are you going to tell me about the awesome, fearless Libyan Air force that of course is better trained and has much better equipment than our navy pilots?

If they were even scrambled, the ones that didn't flee for Malta or Italy claiming political asylum like the two that did so today would be certified halal KIA's.

As for Russia and China, both countries pulled all of their people out of the country as soon as this started. Are you telling me they're going to get into a shooting war over Khaddaffi?

IMO, you couldn't be more wrong, amigo.

As for who started this, I think it's fairly spontaneous..something that had been building for a long time.

In a police state like Libya, one something like this starts its like a prairie fire.


B.Poster said...


Thanks for the reply to my post and for sharing your thoughts on how all of this started. The notion that this is spontaneous seems to be the conventional wisdom. I don't know. This seems highly organized. Had it all began in say Iran, Syria, or Libya the media would be working hard to implicate the Americans. Since it started among American "allies" the media embraced the idea of a spontaneous revoultion.

I'm thinking the Russians may be behind this. I think one of two possibilites may be in effect here. 1.)Russian operatives organized and seeded a revolution against regimes who are/were allied with America in order to undermine American interests. Unfortunately for them it got away from them and now their allies are being threatened. I like the "prairie fire" analogy. Someone probably the Russians sought to do a "controlled burn" and it got away from them. Such things are not unkown to happen when people work with fire or worse when they play with fire.

2.)It is clear that this will drive up the price of oil. The Russians organized and seeded the revolutions in order to destabilze the middle east and drive up the price of oil. Also, this will likely make Europe further dependent upon Russia for its oil supplies. Italy, for example, is dependent upon Libya for 20% of its oil. It seems likely this supply will be compromised if not disrupted entirely. This could drive Italy into the waiting arms of Russia. It seems Russia wins regardless. If so, extremely clever.

I was all set to conclude that possibility 1 was most likely but now you're saying the Russians and the Chinese got their people out right away. To have been able to move so quickly suggests inside knowledge.

I wish someone with the resources to do a proper investigation would investigate this aspect. Whose behind this would have a HUGE impact in determining how we should respond. Perhaps the CIA is looking into this. Unfortunately their competence and objectivity, or lack thereof, make them untrustworthy.

"IMO, you couldn't be more wrong amigo." I may be wrong. Even if I am, I don't envision the American people supporting another military operation. We already invovled in Afghanistan, Iraq, and many other places around the world. Meanwhile vast hordes are invading from the south. I think a redeployment is in order.

Freedom Fighter said...

"Russian operatives organized and seeded a revolution against regimes who are/were allied with America in order to undermine American interests."

Libya isn't allied with us in any way.

"This could drive Italy into the waiting arms of Russia."

For 20% of their oil, which Italy can buy from numerous other sources?

"you're saying the Russians and the Chinese got their people out right away. To have been able to move so quickly suggests inside knowledge."

No, not really. We got our people out at the same time, and so did the Europeans.

"I don't envision the American people supporting another military operation."

This is not a multi-billion, boots on the ground deal but a simple over fly and patrol. We did it for years over Kurdistan before we even though about invading Iraq.

It is a low risk, high benefit way of the US making an enormous political and PR gain in the region.Do you think the Libyans, after Obama's BS in Cairo are going to forgive him for standing by while they get strafed from the sky when he could easily prevent it?

Poster, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Take care, OK?

Anonymous said...

I think it is naive to think these are all democratic uprisings or that they will result in more beniegn regimes. I think it is equally naive to believe that we created any of the bad things that go on in the Middle East OR that we can somehow create good things there. Whatever we do with good intentions will either be diverted to accomplish bad things and/or propagandized to make it look as though we did bad things. Those people and organizations behind the scenes that want to take over these countries will use any deception any ploy to accomplish their goal. They may succeed this year or next year or next decade or eventually but we won't be able to stop them and to the extent we try it will be spun as the U.S. meddling and that will turn the local people against us thus making them all the more vulnerable for those pulling the strings behind the curtain.

Today the entire free world is living a lie. Half of what you hear from the media is untrue and most of it is intentionally untrue as a result of a dishonest and agendized media. Most of the citizens of the free world has been fed a constant anti-American barrage of misinformation and would prefer the communist won rather then the Americans try to protect or help another foriegn country. I think the best thing we can do for the Middle East is to let them go. Let Italy go, let Spain go. Until and unless there is some reality happening the delusional sheeple in most of the free world will remain delusional. Lets stop trying to contain the bear and the dragon and lets let the world take a peek behind the curtain so they can decide who they prefer.

Freedom Fighter said...

Oh, I agree with you Anonymous. One of the characteristics of Islam it that it conditions people to unthinking obedience, which is why the only real democracy in the region - in the sense that we think of a democracy, a democratic Republic - is Israel.

However, a no fly zone such as I suggest and a bit of humanitarian aid are low risk, relatively low cost operations that wouldn't be seen as meddling, but support for the Libyan people - and not only in Libya.

We enforced a no fly zone over the Kurds in Iraq for years, and the Kurds actually created a Western oriented secular democracy there, as opposed to the Shiite Islamic republic based on Sharia Bush put in power.

The Kurds, with a little backing and encouragement from America towards an independent Kurdistan would have been one of our strongest allies in the region. Instead, Bush bowed to the Saudis and the Turks and sold the Kurds out...just like daddy.

But that doesn't mean we couldn't pull off the same trick in Libya and gain a major ally there.

The viewpoint you suggest, that we should let the rest of the world go to hell in it's own way and ignore it was quite popular with Americans, particularly after the end of the Cold War during the Clinton was like wise popular in the 1930's with the America Firsters.

I don't have to tell you how those little vacations from history ended up.

Don't misunderstand you, I'm sick and tired of expensive and futile exercises in 'nation building' and undeclared wars with fuzzy objectives.

But we ignore certain strategic objectives only at the cost of a great deal more blood and treasure later. Unfortunately, it isn't 1798 any more.


B.Poster said...

Anonymous speaks the truth. I couldn't have said this better myself.

The problem with a no fly zone is we will have to enforce it for many years, as in Iraq. We simply don't have will power or even if we had the will power to do it we simply don't have the available resources to do it effectively right now. As such, its unlikely to work and will further tax our military that is almost to the breaking point any way.

Frankly the two best things we could do for ourselves right nwo would be to develop all of our own oil and gas reserves, build more refineries, and place an indefinite moratorium on immigration from Middle Eastern countries. By not letting people into your house who don't like you we will enhance our security prospects. By developing more our own oil and gas reserves and building more refineries we will give ourselves greater leverage when dealing with OPEC and others. Also, we might even be able to offer alternatives to others who need to import oil.

Do these things and we will likely be able to avoid the problems of the 1930s and the after the Cold War. At least this way we have a fighting chance.

In addition, lift some of the regulations that businesses who wish to manufacture in America face that make it cost prohibitive to do business here. That along with tapping into all of our oil and gas reserves, building more refineries, and utilizing coal to oil technologies will improve the economy.

While Italy can in fact likely buy oil from other sources, 20% is a huge number that is not easily replaced. Contracts and delivery terms will have to be negotiated. All this takes time and money. Its questionable wisdom to depend upon a thug regime like Libya for something so vital. Of course we're not any brighter.

B.Poster said...

Obama's speech in Cairo was in fact bs. He never should have given it.

There's plenty of things in America that need his attention. Focusing on an issue on the other side of the world is not a good use of his time or resources. Furthermore the USAF cannot easily prevent Libyan strafing of the Libyan population. To enforce a no fly zone requires the availavle force structure and it takes time and planning to get it in place.

Assuming we have the forces, it will still take time to deploy it in an effective manner. Perhaps the Libyaans think it would be "easy" for America. Maybe they've been fed anti-Aemrican propaganda for so long that we can't penetrate it. One way to demonize something or someone is to overstate its power. That's clearly been a factor here.

B.Poster said...

While I always felt trying to impose a no fly zone was an iffy proposition at best and I actually like the sentiment in such a thing, it appears the window of opportunity we might have had to do such a thing may have effectively closed or is rapidly closing. The Khaddaffi government is warning the crowds to stop the protests or face colonization. Given the anti-Americanism that runs rampant in the region, any attempt by us to intervene in any way, such as by imposing a no fly zone, would have likely been seen as meddling and an attempt at colonization any way. This will only reinforce the point and Mr. Khaddaffi and his loyalists will simply say "I told you so."

In other words, the surest way to save the regime would be for us to try and intervene. All the Libyan factions would unite against us, as a common enemy!! Essentially, if we want this regime gone and something better to replace it, the best prospects for this are for us to stay out of it.