Thursday, June 09, 2011

Is Rudy Running?

Bill Kristol seems to think so.

I'm told by two reliable sources that Rudy Giuliani intends to run for the GOP nomination for president in 2012. He may throw his hat in the ring soon.

Rudy's theory of the race: In the fall of 2007, he decided he couldn't compete with both Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire, and disastrously decided to try to pull back there and pitch his tent in Florida. This year, he'll commit everything to New Hampshire, where he thinks he has a good shot at beating Romney—whom he criticized there earlier this week. He then thinks he can beat whichever more socially conservative candidate(s) is left by winning what are still likely to be winner-take-all primaries in big states like California, New York, and New Jersey.

Rudy's message: I'm tough enough to put our fiscal house in order and to protect us from enemies abroad. The U.S. in 2012 is in bad shape—like New York in 1993. The budget crisis is as severe—and seemingly intractable—as the crime/welfare crisis was in New York then. Rudy dealt with that when people said it couldn't be done. He'll deal with this.

Could it work? Definitely it could. Especially if Rudy runs with a solid Tea Party conservative as VP, like a certain housewife in Wasilla he happens to be on good terms with, or an ex-Army Colonel from Florida who's now in Congress.

As I mentioned before, I think that Barack Obama has a large part of the electorate genuinely frightened, and the historical resonance will be for competence. Certainly Mayor Giuliani has the track record to demonstrate that.

As I said the last time he ran, if the presidential elections are looked on as a hiring decision, Rudy Giuliani definitely had then and has now the most successful executive record of any of the candidates out there. Running New York City, especially after David Dinkins got through with it was a lot more challenging than running the average state. And it's also worth noting that Giuliani accomplished what he accomplished as a Republican in a Blue city where he was required to work with Democrats. His book, Leadership in an interesting study in exactly how he did that.

My own theory is that come 2012, so much stuff is going to have hit the fan anyway that any decent Republican is going to have a pretty good shot at unseating President Obama. While I might prefer someone else, Rudy Giuliani would be a strong candidate and a competent and dynamic force in the White House.

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1 comment:

louielouie said...

i think bill kristol is a dumm mass.
i think the media is gonna decide who they want to be nominated, and sabotage everyone else's campaign.
as for rudy, that was then, this is now, and rudy will just be the same 'ol same 'ol.
and his running mate?
jeb bush of course.