Well...it's happened, for what it's worth. The UN Security Council was given an Iran Resolution today by Britain, France and Germany, backed by the US.
It urges states to restrict nuclear trade with Iran and requires Tehran to halt enriching uranium or face "further measures," diplospeak for possible sanctions.
Russia and China immediately said they oppose the resolution, which demands that Iran halt nuclear research and development activities, and stop construction on a heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak because it could be used to produce weapons-grade fuel. The resolution calls on governments to prevent the transfer to Iran of all "items, materials, goods and technology" that could be used to enrich or reprocess nuclear fuel or advance the Islamic state's missile programs.
The EU and US want the IAEA to report onIranian compliance with a deadline of two weeks to a month.
Iran has already said that it would not respond, and Russia and China, with oil and billions of dollars on the line are opposed to even an implied threat of sanctions.
The U.S. and EU say they'd like a vote before next Tuesday, May 9th.
"We are very skeptical about the sanctions. We think historically they have not been very useful," said Russia's new ambassador, Vitaly Churkin. "We hope that we can find a political and diplomatic solution." (`One that allows us to keep selling the mullahs the tools of the trade')
"I don't think this draft as it stands now will produce good results," said China's ambassador, Wang Guangya.(`And it might interfere with us buying all that oil')
"This resolution will not deal with sanctions," said U.S. Ambassador John R. Bolton, "We expect that if Iran doesn't back away from their conduct, which constitutes a threat to international peace and security, that the council would be ready to take steps subsequently -- the first of which would be targeted sanctions, and we don't exclude that we would take other steps in connection with sanctions outside the council as well." (hmmmm)
Bush and German Chancellor Merkel are in DC tonight discussing all manner of things.
Bush weighed in on Iran at a press conference.
"The Iranians must understand that we won't fold, that our partnership is strong, that for the sake of world peace they should abandon their nuclear weapons ambitions," Bush told reporters.
Merkel praised the US and Germany's "very, very good relationship" and said she was "in total agreement" on Iran. I wonder, can she sell that to her people?
My take? Sanctions would never work, even if they were imposed...ask Saddam. Nor is any agreement with Iran ultimately verifiable or valid in Iran's eyes.Look for the mullahs and Ahmadinejad to come up with a phoney compromise to buy more time...a `Munich moment' as it were for `peace in our time'. That would suit all parties nicely, and defer things until another time.
I only hope nobody gets a picture of Bush coming out of an airplane with an umbrella.
On the other hand (hopefully) I'm wrong. people have misjudged President Bush before now, and he may have more steel and backbone than it appears.
Stay tuned...
2 comments:
Merkel and Bush have demonstrated a remarkable level of unity with Merkel saying: "under no circumstances must Iran be allowed to come into possession of a nuclear weapon." However, she also urged the U.S. not to rush. Merkel's visit to the US is covered in the Atlantic Review, a press digest on transatlantic affairs edited by three German Fulbright Alumni.
Thanks for the link Wilbur..good stuff.
I like Chancellor Merkel ( especially compared to her predecessor) but the question remains: when push comes to shove- and believe me, it will , sooner or later- can she sell it to the German people? What do you think?
As for why a confrontation with Iran is inevitable, you might want to read this:
J O S H U A P U N D I T: Time to do the mullah dance
Thanks for dropping by!
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