Thursday, February 19, 2009

It's Netanyahu


Avigdor Lieberman and Israel Beiteinu endorsed Likud leader Benyamin Netanyahu for prime minister today, which essentially means that it's a done deal.
While Lieberman said he favors a unity government that includes Kadima, Netanyahu has no obligation to do so. And Kadima leader Tzipi Livni has pretty much destroyed that possibility, saying that Kadima will not sit in a government led by Bibi Netayahu: -

"Today, the foundations of a right-wing extremist government under Likud leader Binyamin Netanyahu were set," Livni wrote in a cellular phone text message sent to Kadima members after she had met with party MKs. "Such a government is not our path and we have nothing to look for there."

"They didn't vote for us in order to provide authorization for a right-wing government and we need to provide an alternative of hope from the opposition," Livni continued. "Kadima will continue to fight for its beliefs and its path - an agenda based on two states for two peoples, and one that also includes dealing with vital civilian issues."


Now, Livni could be just be holding out to try and up the price for Kadima joining the Israeli government. But she may have very well ended up pricing herself out of the market.

She has personal issues with Netanyahu and would likely only consent to join a Netayahu-led government if she received a top slot like the foreign ministry - which is a natural spot to put Avigdor Lieberman, who says he's only interested in the defense or foreign ministry portfolios, and Bibi is unlikely to make the mistake Olmert did of putting someone with no command military experience in charge of defense.

There's also the simple fact that Netanyahu and Likud don't need Kadima or Livni to get to the 61 seats needed to form a governing coalition. With Shas, Israel Beiteinu, National Union and the religious parties on board, Likud has more than enough seats to govern. Anything can happen, but I expect that Israel is looking at a center/right coalition.

One good thing about this is that Kadima is unlikely to survive for long out side government, and I wouldn't be surprised to see ex-Likudniks like Shaul Mofaz vote with the new government and gradually return to the fold.

This particular government will likely mark a major change in the way Israel handles its affairs. Both Netanyahu and Lieberman are outspoken on the need to destroy Hamas, and I wouldn't be surprised to see an increasingly hardline attitude towards attacks from Gaza. And while Lieberman and Netanyahu favor some territorial compromise with the Palestinian Authority, it's unlikely to accommodate Abbas' all or nothing position - especially on Jerusalem.

Barring something unusual happening, these are positions that will probably bring the new government into direct conflict with the Obama administration in a year or so after Obama figures out what he's doing with Pakistan and Afghanistan, begins pulling out troops from Iraq and gets a fair amount of his domestic agenda in place.

Obama has a number of Israel haters among his advisers and within the administration, and those voices will increasingly be heard on how Israel is 'obstructing the peace process'. The usual suspects in the media have already begun demonizing the Likud-led government as 'hardline', 'far right' and 'extreme'.



13 comments:

Ymarsakar said...

Thinks this will break their Jewish ghoul votes or will it be like with Sarah, an even greater loyalty on the part of dead beat loyalists?

Freedom Fighter said...

About half and half, I'd say. Depends on how blatant Obama gets re: Israel.I think he's likely to get pretty blatant in a year or so.
He is, after all owned by the Saudis and by George Soros.

The most support for Israel(generally speaking) comes not from lefty Jews but from Evangelicals and those Jews of a more observant or politically conservative nature. And of course, from the older generation, many of who still think they're voting for FDR and were convinced that Obama was pro-Israel because that's how he was cynically portrayed.

In any event, unless they wish to commit national suicide, the Israelis are going to have to say no to a lot of what th ecurrent administration wants.

Regards,
Rob

louielouie said...

one of the interesting things about combining shas is the IB (i abbreviate IB because i can't type israel beiteinu) party's requirement of a loyalty oath.
isn't shas the religious party.
won't this cause them conflict with the orthodox joooos who don't recognise an israeli state?

Ymarsakar said...

And I am sure that the people who demanded that Bush "listen" to our allies in NATO over Iraq will be the first ones to demand that Israel bend their knee to the dictats of the Left.

Ymarsakar said...

Jews in Israel seem to be getting the sufficient psychological and emotional shock to change views. At least on a superficial level.

Maybe a new terrorist attack targeting Jews here in the US may do the same thing. Although, given the luck, the Jews that die will be on our side. Paying for the mistakes of their Democrat neighbors.

Freedom Fighter said...

Not at all, Louie.

There are only a very very small minority of ultra-orthodox Jews who do not recognize the present state of Israel on the grounds it was not handed to them by Moshiach ( the Messiah).

Shas, which is largely a party of Sephardic religious Jews is certainly not among them, nor do they have any representation in Israel's Knesset ( they don't recognize it, and so don't vote).

One of Shas' Rabbis denounced Lieberman, but that was because he wants to legalize civil marriage ( Jewish Israelis who are not married by the rabbis currently go to Cyprus or someplace to get hitched).

But Shas is also fairly conservative, and they had told Bibi that they woul dbe in government with Lieberman.

Regards,
Rob

Freedom Fighter said...

Ymarsakar,
We've actually been very close to the type of attack you speak of.

I still hope that a shock lik ethat isn't necessary.

B.Poster said...

Saying no to the Obama Administration and the United States government should not prove to terribly difficult in a year or so. Keep in mind, for the sake of the American people, I don't want this to happen but given Obama's current policies to date by this time next year we will likely be looking at 20 to 25% unemploymnet and hyper inflation which will mean the dollar will be worth maybe half of what it currently is and the US dollar will no longer be the world's reserve currency. In this situation Mr. Obama and his team will be fighting for their political survival. There will not be the time or the ability for team Obama to pressure Israel in any meaningful way.

Perhaps he is owned by Soros and the Saudis. If this is so, they will be selling him for pennies on the dollar. The United States military is worn thin and the money is unavailable to bring it up to speed. In other words, Mr. Soros and the Saudis own an asset of limited value. They will need to find another puppet.

Oh and Mr. Obaam wants to slash the nucelar arsenal by 80%. the United States military was already inferior to the Russians, the Chinese, and probably India. Now these countries probably think this is pretty funny. The United States is utterly useless to Soros and the Saudis at this point.

Please understand I deeply respect and admire the services of all of our men and women who serve in the military. The above paragraph is not meant to degrade them in any way. In fact, the Aemrican government has let them down. As a result of this, the United States military is worn close to the breaking point and due to a massive national debt the ability to upgrade America's military capabilities is unavailable.

America is largely finished as a major world power. All that's really left is for the Russians or the Chinese to deliver the knock out blow. It actaully would not take much at this point. Actually they can probably sit back and allow Obama and his team of clowns and his allies in the Hosue and Senate to do it for them!!

Mr. Obama's plate figures to be full in the next year or so fighting for his political survival. There will be little time or ability for him to pressure Israel.

What Israel should do at this point is to chart a course for their policy that is completely separate from the United States. The sooner they do this the better. While there is nothing America can do to Israel, America has enemies such as Russia who do pose a serious economic and military threat to Israel. When Russia makes its final move, Israel probably does not want to be to close to America.

The optimal thing would be for American and Israeli leaders to come together to fight and defeat a common enemy. Islamic terrorists and Russia pose just as much a threat to George Soros and company as they do to the rest of us. The sooner we all realize that the better.

In the end, people typically choose to attempt to survive. I pray we recognize the threat we are facing before it is too late. Until Anerica's ruling elites abandon their suicidal tendencies, Israel should oppose them when necessary and push them out of the way when they try to meddle. Of course, as stated earlier, given the end results of the current polices of Aemrica's ruling elites they will have much bigger problems on their hands in a year or so than they do now and they will not have the time or the ability to interfere in Israel's affairs.

At the very least, any American interference will have to be at the behest of major Israeli political players. Israel should simply say no to bone headed American policies.

Ymarsakar said...

Are you referring to some of the failed plots or something recent?

Freedom Fighter said...

Both, actually. There's no link because they kept it out of the press, but one of my sources whom I trust implicitly and who should definitely know told me that the NYPD stopped a major assault in Crown Heights during the Gaza War on Jewish homes and synagogues.

And in Los Angeles, a similar plot a few years ago was only detected and stopped in the last stages before execution by sheer chance, because the conspirators were holding up convenience stores and gas stations to finance the attacks and one of the Motards dropped a cell phone at the scene of one of the robberies.

Ymarsakar said...

because the conspirators were holding up convenience stores and gas stations to finance the attacks and one of the Motards dropped a cell phone at the scene of one of the robberies.

These terrorist cells need better monetary logistics. They cause too much visibility with either on site planning, surveillaince, and fund/resource gathering. THe FBI usually has the tools, right now, to catch one of em at something and trace it.

If they just brought their explosives, id, intel, and funds across the border and then blew up like 50 buses, it would be much more simple. If they knew how to speak Spanish and had contacts among the Drug Cartels, or even control of the drug cartel's tunnels.

Without the central funding of AQ, which went into Afghanistan and Iraq, they have to spend more time in the US to cook stuff up. One of the advantages of dealing with numerous amature cells. Disaggregated, yes, but it also forces them to be self-sufficient for the most part.

B.Poster said...

Could it be that the "motard" is not in fact a retard at all? I think we should at least be willing to consider the possibility that the act of the cell phone being dropped was an act of divine intervention. Historically God has acted to protect America from trouble. Perhaps God is still at work today.

Perhaps they do know how to speak Spanish and have contacts with the drug cartels. Again the fact that they have been thwarted I think may be primarily a function of divine intervention.

Ymarsakar raises an interesting point that seems to be that when AQ went into Afghanistan and Iraq this took precious resources from the Islamic terrorist movement and essentially some of these groups had to virtually start over.

Ymarsakar said...

marsakar raises an interesting point that seems to be that when AQ went into Afghanistan and Iraq this took precious resources from the Islamic terrorist movement and essentially some of these groups had to virtually start over.

Part of Britain has terrorist cells cropping up everywhere is the fact that they actively subsidize Muslims.

I'm sure Obama will eventually get to the same deal in Los Angeles and Texas. He is already starting, after all.