Friday, February 27, 2009

Israel's New Government - A Shift To Common Sense

It's official...Tzipi Livni and Kadima will not be part of Israel's new government.

Netanyahu apparently made a decent effort to include Livni and Kadima in a unity government, offering them a decent number of ministries and a chance to draft the new government's policies.Netanyahu also said that he would continue to negotiate with the Palestinians 'for peace' in the future.

Livni turned him down, saying that "Unity is not just sitting in a government together. It also means sharing a way {...}We discussed the issues. I didn't see any commitment on Bibi's part to these issues. The meeting ended without any understandings, and we cannot be part of Netanyahu's government."

Of course the real problem is personal issues of Livni's. She apparently thought that after years of failure being part of the worst government in Israel's history, the voters would just flock to her. Aside from a number of other concessions, she was insisting on rotating the prime ministership with Netanyahu even though the only party endorsing her for the job were her own flacks in Kadima.Even the leftist parties of Labor and Meretz didn't want her in charge.

She now comes across even to many of those that voted for her as basically a conceited, full of herself personality who's put her own ego ahead of her party and her country...which is an entirely accurate portrait of her as far as I'm concerned.

Netanyahu, on the other hand, comes across to Israelis as magnanimous,pragmatic and open minded. He appears looking like he sincerely wanted a national unity government, while Livni and Labor's Ehud Barak who are also likely going to remain in opposition are seen as entirely to blame for that not happening.

Even better, the odds of Kadima surviving out of government until the next election are extremely slim. It was always a cobbled together party with no real principles, and the component parts will gradually drift back to Labor and Likud, depending on their individual politics. Tzipi Livni has likely cut her nose off to spite her face as far as her future political career on any kind of national level is concerned. And as I predicted long ago, Kadima will likely end up like Tommy Lapid's Shinui Party a few years back...a bad joke people barely remember.

Netanyahu will likely form his coalition with Shas, Israel Beiteinu, Habayit Hayehudi, National Union,and possibly UTJ, although don't be surprised if Labor and Ehud Barak come aboard at the last minute. Barak hates Tzipi Livni on a personal level, likely enjoys the opportunity of making her look ridiculous and probably wants to stay as head of the defense ministry if he can convince Labor to go along. There will be some serious horse trading going on, standard for Israeli politics but the last thing anyone wants is to go to elections again.

Avigdor Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu will likely end up as foreign minister, a job he's already said he wants.

The implications of all this?

First, the Golan, Jerusalem and likely most of the Jewish communities in Judea and Samaria are off the table. Netanyahu's coalition partners won't even entertain the idea, and even if Labor becomes part of the new government, they don't have enough seats to bring the government down if they bolt. Israel Beiteinu's leader Avigdor Lieberman has gone on record as saying he would be willing to trade Israeli territory in the Galilee that is mostly populated by Arabs to the Palestinians as part of an agreement in exchange for land populated by Jews in Judea and Samaria ( AKA the West Bank), but the Palestinians are unlikely to accept this.

The new Israeli government has said in no uncertain terms it will not deal with Hamas as part of a Palestinian 'unity' government. This is only common sense as Abbas and Fatah have no power or legitimacy and a 'unity' government will soon end up as a Hamas state. And it's also legitimate in terms of the agreements signed between the Bush Administration and Israel.

However, it will probably lead to clashes between the pro-Arab Obama Administration and their enablers in the press and Israel.

The prospective new government is already being labeled 'extreme right' and 'hardline' by the usual suspects.

The Obama Administration has already appointed a number of top level advisers whom think that Israel is the problem, and are willing to try to appease the Arabs at Israel's expense. Their position is that if those stubborn Jews simply did what they were told and knuckled under to the Saudi 'peace' ultimatum, unicorns would roam the hills and the sounds of kumbayah would resonate in the entire Middle East.

Needless to say, this is a fantasy, but one with real life costs.

The Obama Administration has already committed to pledge almost a billion dollars of your tax money to help Hamas rebuild Gaza, plus another $20.3 million to help Hamas migrate to America, and they are quite obviously laying the groundwork for the US dealing openly with a genocidal terrorist entity.

Since Hamas is unlikely to change its agenda even as the US urges giving them even more cash, and the Israelis will not deal with a Palestinian government that has Hamas as part of it, the Obama Administration will likely square that particular circle by simply dealing openly with Hamas and rescinding the legal prohibitions on dealing with a terrorist entity...just as the US eventually did with Arafat and Fatah.

Remember, you heard it here first.

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