Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Early Exit Poll Results From the Israeli Elections

Very interesting.

The early results fom the Channel 2 poll show Likud with 27 seats, Kadima with 29 seats and Labor 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu will have 15 seats in the new Knesset.

The Channel 10 poll shows that Likud will take 28 seats, Kadima will hold 30 seats and Labor 13 seats. Yisrael Beiteinu will have 15 seats.

This does not mean Tzipi Livni wins. The Rightist bloc now has 62-64 seats, will the eleftist bloc only has 48, a major fall from the 70 they had in the old Knesset. But the Rightist bloc also includes Lieberman and Yisrael Beiteinu, who are set to be the kingmakers, assuming the exit polls mirror the actual results - which they very well may not.

Labor, which would have to be part of any government Livni came up with has already said they will not participate in a government that includes Lieberman, and you may recall that after Olmert resigned, Livni tried to form a government with Labor's Ehud Barak and failed...largely because they hate each other pesonally. To make a government with 61 seats that does not include Yisrael Beiteinu, Livni would have to get Shas ( 10 seats), the Left wing parties (Meretz , 5 seats) plus the three Arab parties ( 9 seats) along with Labor to have a majority..and it's unlikely,to say the least.

I'll have more when the real results come in.

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