Monday, August 18, 2008

Georgia: The Russians Aren't Leaving Yet

As a matter of fact, they appear to be digging in.

Gori is still under Russian control, and there have even been some rumors of Russian forces advancing from Gori towards Tbilsi.

I doubt the Russians and their Ossetian 'militias' will go that far, but they are obviously fortifying South Ossetia and have brought short range ballistic missile launchers into the enclave...so the part of the ceasefire that called for only a temporary Russian presence in the Georgian provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia is obviously something the Russians have no plans to abide by.

Underlining this was Russian president Medvedev thumping his chest and announcing that anyone who defies the Russians will be crushed.

I think whatever Russian pullout there is will be slow, protracted and designed to secure their stranglehold on Georgian territory.





4 comments:

B.Poster said...

If the United States behaved the way Russia has toward a country it invaded, the media would be beside itself with rage over the actions of the American leadership and its military. When Russia does this, the silence among the media elites is deafening.

If we are going to fight a new cold war, it is going to be very difficult for the Aemrican side, if the Russian side can do whatever it wants whenever it wants and the American side has to be restrained in what it does.

Also, with our massive national debt we may find it difficult to finance the type of military expenditures that will be neccessary to win this war. Whereas the Russians are flush with cash from high oil prices that are likely to continue for te foreseeable future. It is going to be vitally impearative that the United States get its spending under control.

B.Poster said...

The American military response to the attacks of 911 was not as extreme as the Russian response in this situation!! This is arguably what I find most amazing of all.

The United States and Israel face clear existential threats from Islamic terrorists and they face them on a daily basis. Yet the military responses of the United States and Israel have never been as decisive as Russia's response to the military equivelant of a gnat.

The next time Russia's lackeys in the international community criticize our interrogation techniques or criticize us for not doing enough to avoid civilian casualties we need to remind them of how they reacted to a country that posed absolutely no threat to the Russian homeland. While we are pointing this out to the Russians we might explain to them that our response to Islamic terrorists would be less necessary if they would stop supporting Iran and Syria.

We face existential threats on a daily basis but have never responded with the fury that Russia did to Georgia. I might also point out that American and Israeli military operations tend to take longer than the Russian operation in Georgia did becuase we don't fight decisively!!

Russia has provided us with a precendet if we want to more aggressively pursue our enemies. The next time their lackeys in the human rights movemeent complain about our actions we need to remind them that their silence was deafening while Russia was raping Georgia. We also should remind them that we face threats to our very existence that Russia does not.

Finally, while Russia is busy in Georgia, this has provided probably the best opportunity that Israel will have in the foreseeable future to take out Iran's nuclear weapons program. The Israelis have already proven that they can defeat Russia's most advanced defense systems. US systems are far inferior to the Russians in this area. If the US has any such defenses to guard Iraqi airspace, defeating it would be a walk in the park compared to defeating the Russian systems.

Freedom Fighter said...

Hi Poster,
I seriously doubt Russia and the US are going to war just yet.

Putin, unlike the Mullahs is a rational actor and the last thing he wants is a war with the US Russia would be absolutely certain to lose.

Remember that Russia's population is actually declining as is their industrial capacity.Russia is surviving through petrodollars..and the future may make that a very tenuous source of income.

And as for those missile defense systems ...don't you think the Israelis (possibly unwisely) shared their data on the Pantsyr sytem with the Americans? It would hardly be the first time Israel has shared Russian weaponry ( and even captured personnel) with the US.

Also,keep in mind that the last thing the Bush Administration wants is an Israeli strike on Iran...if you've been following this site you'll know why. Condi Rice and Robert Gates,both old James Baker proteges are fairly anti-Israel and hold great sway in the administration at the moment.

ff

B.Poster said...

Freedom Fighter

Thanks for the reply to my post. I'm not sure how we could be absolutely certain that Russia would lose in a war with the US. I certainly hope and pray so but the only way to know for certain would be to actually fight the war, which I don't want it to come to, as the loss of life would be TREMNDOUS. It seems to me that the Russians have advantages in some areas and we have advantages in other areas.

I ahve been following your site. It is a very valuable tool for keeping up with current events. Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication in maintaining it.

I understand why Bush would prefer that Israel not attack Iran. He may or may not get his wish.

First of all I would not expect Israel to commit suicide to keep Bush and his advisors happy. The fact is Israel will have to act on this before Aemrica would have to.

Also, Iran may do something between now and the time that Bush leaves office that may mean Aemrica has no choice but to attack Iran. Iran is already using proxies to fight America in various places but a direct war between America and Iran is unlikely to begin with an American military strike on Iran. An Iranian attack on the American homeland is much more likely to happen than an American attack on Iran'snuclear facilities. This attack could involove the use of so called suitcase nuclear war heads or dirty bombs. Obviously we pray that something like this does not happen but it is something that American leaders should be preparing for.

I agree that Israel has probably shared the information that they gained on the Pantsyr system. I suspect it will take a while for the Israelis to bring the Aemricans up to speed on this system. Also, the Israelis sharing Russian weaponary and captured personnel with the US has been invaluable to America and the free world. It has been my contention for a number of years that without Israeli help America would have lost the Cold War. This American is eternally greatful for the valuable help that Israel has provided and continues to provide to America.

Unfortunately I think you are right that sharing this information with the Americans may be unwise. With all of the moles that the US has running around in important position had U been in Israel's position I probably would not have shared this information with the Americans. At a minimum, before sharing any thing with the Aemrican government, I would tell them to please control their over zealous news media!! There is an olod saying. "Loose lips sink ships." This certainly applies to the Aemrican news media!!

Russia's economy does depend upon high oil prices to a large extent. We could and should develop more of our own oil and gas reserves and build more refineries. This would mean we would not be sending as much money to Islamic terrorists and the states that support them. This can only help. However, since the price of oil is determined by a world market and the economies of China, India, and others are growing oil prices in excess of $100 per barrel are probably here to stay for the foreseeable future. I hope I'm wrong. I hoppe there would be some way to get oil prices lower without the world economy tanking. If the economy tanks, there is less need for oil and this would lower the price. I would like to get the price lower without a world wide recession.

With that said the best thing we can do to defeat Russia and Iran would be to find somew way to collapse world oil prices without there being a world wide recession. If we could keep the world economy growing at its current level and collapse oil prices to say $40 per barrel, this would be good for the world and it would limit the amout of money going to Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran. This would make them much easier to defeat.