The Russians have stopped their invasion of Georgia after a meeting with French President Sarkozy and announced their conditions for peace, and they're fairly brutal.
The Russians will absorb one fifth of Georgia, annexing Abkhazia and South Osettia. While the Russians had troops stationed there before, they never had total control over these territories, which were internationally recognized as part of Georgia. In addition, they want a 'buffer zone' in which Georgian security forces would be forbidden to enter, and a treaty guaranteeing that Georgia will never use force to recapture them. What that amounts to is 'legalization' to Moscow's land grab.
And the Russians left the door open to future attacks, at a time of their choosing.
Russia's president Dmitri Medvedev said, "I've decided to finish the operation to force the Georgian authorities to peace. The safety of our peacekeeping forces and civilian population has been restored. The aggressor has been punished, having sustained considerable losses. Its armed forces have been disorganised.
But Medvedev ordered his defence minister, Anatoliy Serdukov, to respond to any Georgian attempt to fight back. "Should centres of resistance or other aggressive attempts arise, you must take the decision to destroy them."
Medvedev also reiterated his call for Georgia's president Saakashvili to be removed, referring to him as a 'lunatic' and saying that it was now "up to Georgia" to accept Russia's terms.
For his part Saakashvili made a speech at a defiant rally attended by tens of thousands of people in Tbilisi yesterday. He accused Russia of trying to conquer Georgia and vowed to uphold the nation's independence. "Georgia will never surrender," he said.
Now that the Russians have the enclaves they wanted all along and and have sent the message they wanted to the former members of their empire, look for further attempts on Georgia's independence by Russia at the first pretext for renewed hostility
2 comments:
First, I don't pretend to "know" what should be done here. This is simply what I think should be done. I think there is no doubt that many Georgians will not take this lying down. I suspect theire will pockets of reistance. The US should support this resitance in any and all ways that are possible. I think we have done this before. If the Georgian resistance is successful, we amy be able to turn this into a strategic defeat for Russia. In fact, we may be able to turn this into "Putin's Afghanistan" as one commentator put it. In additon to this, NATO membership should be fast tracked for Ukraine and other Soviet Republics. At this point, we will probably need to convince them that we can be trusted and will not betray them. In additon to this, we need to make it clear to the Russians that we are willing and able to reopen the Cold War.
Lets see how Russia does when they have to go up against the US. After all right now Russia is essentially fighting one against zero. When you are going one against none its fairly easy to win. If the US is prepared to actually challenge Russia, the Russians may find things are not quite so easy for them.
Challenging Russia is a VERY RISKY propostion. Of course any thing worth doing is going to be risky. Also, the more risky something is generally the more rewarding success is. If we are going to do this properly, we will need to increase the size and capabilities of the armed forces of the US and other NATO countries. I would begin by upgrading the nuclear arsenal. The main area of focus should be the ICBMs.
Also, any kind of assertive American response to aggressive/assertive Russian actions will face an EXTREMELY hostile response from the Aemrican and international news media. In otehr words, it is generally the opinion of the Aemrican and international news media organizations that the Americans should simply capitualte to whatever demands Russia has. To stand against this, would require leadership that has incredible character. It will be VERY difficult.
Frankly I'm not sure which leaders are up to it. Is Barack Obama up to it? I don't know. The democratic party base is extremely hostile to any assertive Aemrican actions. It seems unlikely that he could stand up to the pressure. Hopefully I'm wrong.
Us Jojn McCain up to it? I don't know. In his defense, he does have a history of taking stances that are unpopular with the so called Republican party base.
Also, the power of the president in the US is extremely limited. We need strong and courageous leadership all the way around.
Finally, if we don't want to be a major power, we may be able to just withdraw and let the former Soviet Republics fall back under Russian control. Maybe the Russians would leave us alone, if they don't see us as a threat to their positon as the dominant power. Of coruse this would mean we fought the Cold War for nothing. Such an outcome would be truly sad.
Perhaps the biggest problem we have is we, in the US and Western Europe, have largely abandoned our Judeo-Christian heritage. While there are still vestiges of it within America that still remain, it has largely been abandoned. When we conducted our affairs based on a Judeo-Christian world view, it was reasonable to expect G_d to bless us. Unless we return to this heritage that made us great expecting G_d to continue to bless us is problematic at best. We should return to this heritage before we do anything else.
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