Friday, October 29, 2010
JoshuaPundit's Final Election Predictions - Featuring Weekend Monkey
As usual at election time , I'm joined by Joshuapundit's political guru, Weekend Monkey for our joint election predictions for the mid terms. We'll also be live blogging the results, so be sure to tune in.
RM: Well Monkey, it's that time again
WM: Hee hee, yeah! Let's lay one on the primates!
RM: How do the betting lines look, Monkey?
WM: Nice...especially with a 2% vig!
RM: it's certainly an improvement over your previous arrangements..although I'm surprised you were able to get any vigorish on an election bets tote board. My compliments. Let's start with the House.
I'd be very surprised to see the GOP end up with less than a 60 seat pickup,and it could easily be higher, so I'll say between 60 and 70.. bonanza territory would be a gain of 85 seats - a veto proof majority
WM: In yer ear, Rob. 54 seats. I see them at around 220 or so right now, which is a 42 seat pick up, and I figure they'll take some of the toss ups.But I gotta admit with me giving the ReThugs a 40 odd seat pick up already and 40 toss up seats out there, 60 + seats could happen, and I'm only betting individual seats this year rather than the House composition. And yeah, it could be higher.But 85 seats?Pass that opium pipe around and share, willya?
RM: Well, I didn't predict 85 seats...I just said it would be a bonanza.
WM: Quit yer weaseling, Rob. How many seats you figuring the Rethugs snatch?
RM: OK...a total gain of 64 seats. I see the GOP at about 225 already, and I figure they get at least half the toss ups in this environment.
WM: The Senate?
RM: I see a split senate, 50-48, with a gain of 9. The Republicans will hold all of their present seats. I see GOP pickups in Arkansas, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Indiana. As for the toss ups, I see the Republicans taking Colorado, Nevada, and West Virginia. Miller wins in Alaska, Marco Rubio in Florida.
These are all too close to call, but I also expect to see an upset in at least one of these four - Connecticut, California, Washington or Illinois.If I'm right, that's 9 seats for the GOP..if the Republicans take two, than that's 10 seats and control of the Senate. And don't forget Delaware. Christine O'Donnell has halved her deficit with Chris Coons in less than a week, things are tightening up there and you never know what might happen come election day, just because that's supposedly such a forgone conclusion..
WM: Hooo! They'll get 8 seats, Rob. I'll go along with you on Arkansas, Wisconsin, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Indiana. And on Colorado, Nevada and Pennsylvania. Murkowski will win in Alaska,not Joe Miller, but that isn't gonna affect the end numbers since she'll caucus with the Rethugs.
West Virginia, Delaware and Connecticut stay Democrat, although West Virginia's gonna be tight. I see Manchin taking it by maybe 2 points, max.Delaware stays Democrat unless O'Donnell really is a witch and casts some kinda spell.
RM: Odds on West Virginia, Monkey? And are you laying on Murkowski in Alaska?
WM: 7 to 4 in West Virginia Manchin wins. I'll take all the action I can get from primates giving me Raese plus 4 or 5 points.Alaska's too close for this monkey and it's a weird race with the write in thing going on. But it smells like a win for Murkowski,
RM: California, Washington and Illinois?
WM: Get real,pal. Boxer stays, I know these things. And watch for some entertaining results from King County/Seattle in Washington State and Crook County in ChiTown. Giannoulis is gonna be the Dem Senator from Illinois in a surprise win. Only it ain't gonna be a surprise to the boys in Chicago, if you know what I mean. The dead are probably voting like the loyal Democrats they are right now, as we're talking.
The way I see it, it's gonna be a big night for the Rethugs, but not as big as some people have been saying.
RM: Well, we see November 2nd! You'll be there for the live blogging yes?
WM: Wouldn't miss it. I'll bring the tequilla, you supply the eats and fixin's, okeydoke?
RM: Looking forward to it. Until then, Monkey..
Weekend Monkey was a Democratic candidate for president in 2008 and is JoshuaPundit's political Guru. His column, The Real Banana appears regularly here. He can be reached with comments, freebies and interesting offers at firstname.lastname@example.org