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The big story today concerns the discovery of a what's described as a previously unknown and hidden Iranian nuclear site:
President Obama and the leaders of France and Britain blasted Iran's construction of a previously unacknowledged uranium enrichment facility and demanded Friday that Tehran immediately fulfill its obligations under international law or risk the imposition of harsh new sanctions.
"Iran is breaking rules that all nations must follow," Obama said, detailing how the facility near Qom had been under construction for years without being disclosed, as required, to the International Atomic Energy Agency. "International law is not an empty promise."
The new Iranian plant, the country's second uranium enrichment facility, is believed by U.S. officials to be part of a broad effort by Iran's leadership to pursue the ability to build nuclear weapons. Iran has repeatedly denied having any such goal, insisting that its nuclear program is aimed at generating electricity. U.S. officials said they believe the Qom plant is not yet operational but is intended to produce highly enriched uranium -- suitable for nuclear weapons -- and will be capable within months of producing enough material for at least one bomb per year.
In an early indication of Iran's reaction, President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad warned Western officials against pressing their case about the new enrichment plan during the upcoming talks.
"If I were [President] Obama's adviser, I would definitely advise him to refrain making this statement because it is definitely a mistake," Ahmedinejad told Time magazine Friday in an interview in New York that took place even as Obama was publicly revealing the plant's existence. "It would definitively be a mistake."
As far as I'm concerned, this is a huge non-story.
Anyone with an iota of common sense who's been following this knows that Iran has been pursuing its clandestine illegal nuclear weapons program for over a decade.
And this latest discovery is by no means the total story. This is just another one that leaked out.
We already know that Iran is working on perfecting nuclear weapons. The heavy water plant at Arak, which has no peace time applications proves this if nothing else does.
We also know (or we should) that we're not dealing with rational actors here.
And finally we know that after six years of going around and around with the mullahs, diplomacy and carrots are not going to work. Iran is an economic basket case, and if 'incentives' were going to do the trick, they already would have.
Ahmadinejad and the Mullahs have been quite clear on numerous occasions that they have no intention of even discussing their nuclear program any further. Why we refuse to take them at their word is a mystery.
The story goes on with quotes about the Western leaders resolve to *Hold. Iran. Accountable* but what that means exactly is anyone's guess.
If they're talking about UN sanctions, they might as well save their energy. Russia and China will veto anything substantive and violate any watered down sanctions that manage to be approved by the UN Security Council.
If the Western powers plan on implementing sanctions on their own, it gets even worse. Russia can ship to Iran overland or by water via the Caspian Sea, and even if Europe was inclined to cooperate, Russia has the ability to blackmail Europe because of their control of the energy pipelines coming from the East. And interdicting Iranian shipping via the Persian Gulf is going to involve the West instituting a naval blockade and stopping ships, something I doubt Obama or the other Western leaders have the will to do.
So the real story remains, what are we prepared to do the stop Iran from getting its hands on nuclear weapons? Will we go to war over it? Will we bomb the sites ourselves? Will we wait for the Israelis to get tired of waiting and take out the nuke sites for us?
Or will we just sit there and continue to vote "present"?
I guess we'll see.
3 comments:
For whatever reason, sometimes I seem to have difficulty getting lengthy posts to post. Perhaps I will have better luck with a condensed version of what I wanted to post.
I'm with you 100% on the questions you ask in the last two paragraphs. I think these are good questions but there needs to be some follow up questions. They should be as follows, 1.) Can we stop Iran from getting its hands on nuclear weapons? 2.)If we go to war over it, can we realisticly expect to win? 3.)Can we penetrate Iran's defenses in order to successfully bomb the sites ourselves? 4.) Can Israel take out these sites for us?
I think there is a high degree of probablity that the answers to these questions is a resounding no. In fact, the military may have already figured this out and advised the current and former President's accordingly. Thsi may at least partially explain the strategies they have followed.
Keep in mind I do not agree with their strategies. Any defense of America should begin with border security. Unfortunately neither major political party seems to be taking this seriously. Of course if the answers to the questions I pose are no, border security becomes even more paramont than if the answers happen to be yes.
"Can Israel take out these sites?" This question is of paramont importance to America. A study of the history of civilization indicates that the Jewish people have survived often times against almost impossible odds. Furthermore a careful study of the Holy Scriptures indicates that God guarantees eternal survival to the Jewish people. In addition to this, the land that the nation of Israel currently exists on is guaranteed to the Jewsih people as an eternal possession by God Himself. As such, to me at least, the logical conclusion is that God is fighting on behalf of the Jewish people. It would be unwise for America or any other nation to oppose God.
Given the prior history of the Jewish people, if the IDF cannot take out Iran's nuclear weapons sites, we should expect God to act on their behalf to do so. If we can't or won't do, our best bet is going to be get out of the way and allow Israel to do it or if they can't to "watch the show" so to speak while God does it for them.
"Iran's economy is a basket case" this may well be true. America's economy is also a basket case.
The offical unemployment rate is around 10%. If we count those who have been unemployed for so long they have dropped off of the unemployment rolls, this rate will likely be even higher. If we count those who are underemployed, the unemployment rate is likely higher still. We may be looking at an actual unemployment rate of around 20 to 25%. In addition to this, America faces a massive debt load. Even if the Iranian unemployment rate is as high as Aemrica's, it is unlikely that they have as massive a debt load as America does. In other words, the Iranian leadership is probably thankful that their economic situation is not nearly as dire as America's is.
America could begin to fix its economy and its unemployment rate by doing the following: 1.)cut the maximum corporate income tax rate from the current rate of 35% to 15% and 2.)allow businesses to fully expense all capital assets they purchase. This includes all equipment, buildings, and land. To do this will require real leadership. Unfortunately it is lacking on the part of both major political parties right now.
In addition to the problems of high unemployment and large debt loads held by both the Government and, in many cases, corporations, America's manufacturing base is almost non existent now. As such, the American economy is a "basket case" in its own right. I'm sure it is far more dire than the one Iran faces. In large part, this is why Iran knows it has nothing to fear from America. I'm sure the main goals of the current Iranian government with regards to foreign policy is keeping the Russians and the Chinese relatively happy.
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