Hidey Ho, Primates! Welcome to the one and only Real Banana, your source for the real poop on politics.
Let's do it and get to it..
Since the last time I handicapped the Senate races for you, things have gotten even more ominous for my Democrats.When somebody like Joe Biden is trying to rev up turnout with a speech and calling other people dull, it's not exactly a good sign. And Obama's rallies on the campaign trail have not exactly been the scene of frenzied mobs, if you know what I'm saying.You can only fling so much poop for so long before it starts affecting you.
The unemployment numbers look awful, even with the usual fudging and nudging, and they ain't gonna change between now and November.The way this Monkey sees it, the ReThugs are probably going to make at least 7 pickups in the Senate without much of a doubt. Which means that control of the Senate is gonna come down to a handful of races, 6 or 7 tops. And I will share my wisdom on each of them with you in turn.
With 7 pickups pretty much in the bag (I'm talking Indiana, Arkansas, North Dakota, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin and West Virginia) the Rethugs need to take 3 out of 7 possible seats to rule the Senate jungle. And if nothing changes, they might just do it.
Let's start with Nevada.The race there was always to see who was the least hated, Harry Reid or kooky Tea Party babe Sharron Angle. The way it looked at the beginning, the primates in Nevada were going to hold their noses and vote for Harry, especially after he hit Angle with a banana boat load fulla negative ads.
But Angle came back once her money started coming it, and Reid did some stoo-pid stuff even by political standards. This race looks like it's gelling, and at this point it seems that Angle has not only caught Harry Reid but passed him. This may still see-saw a bit but I see it as a good bet for another GOP pickup. At this point, I'd say 5-3 for.
Illinois is sorta the same song n' dance...two not very tasty candidates in a race to see who becomes bottom man, ReThug Mark Kirk or Alexi Giannoulias, Obama and Charlie Rezco's banker.
Kirk has been holding on to a slim lead for awhile now, and some polls show him as being ahead by as much as four points. I figure he's going to have to get to at least 6-7 points ahead to beat Giannoulias and offset votes coming from Chicago's prisons and cemeteries.Possible ReThug pickup, but I rate the odds as no better than 50-50 at this point.
Washington State has been teetering back and forth between Rethug Dino Valenti and Patty Murray. Right now, Valenti is slightly ahead but not by any significant amount. A lot will depend on turnout..Murray has never been all that good at getting the primates excited, so it all depends on whether the King County/Seattle/Olympia turnout offsets the rest of the state. Crappy weather on election day could be a deciding factor. The odds...too close to call, so I'll say 50-50 again. But this is definitely in play as a possible ReThug pickup.
California is a different buncha bananas. Babs Boxer may be dumb, but she's got tons of cash and is as mean as a baboon with an infected hemorrhoid, and she's running in California, no? Carly Fiorina will get close, but I see my Democrats hanging on to the Golden State in a close one.Odds? At least 6-3 against a GOP pickup, and I wouldn't lay based on what's happening now unless I got Fiorina and at least 5 or 6 points.
Same thing with Connecticut, only a little more so.Dick Blumenthal is an airhead who has provided ReThug and WWF tycoon Linda McMahon with a decent amount of ammo to fire at him..but this is a Blue state, filled with people who wouldn't vote for Jesus if he had an R after his name. At this point if nothing changes, I see Blumenthal winning by at Least 5 points. Odds 5-2 against a ReThug pickup.
Ditto the Gillibrand Dioguardi race in New York. This one stays Blue.
And finally, there's Delaware.Believe it or not, this is my long shot dark horse candidate for a ReThug pickup.Christine O'Donnell has basically become a national punchline, but she's reacted to it well, and her last two ads with an 'I'm you' theme, sappy piano music and featuring her looking witchly alluring might just resonate with the primtes, especially if there's low turnout.
Chris Coons is no dynamo, he's identified with Obama in a state where Obama has become something of a dirty word and at this point there's not too much else wacky about O'Donnell that's going to come out. Plus, Sarah Palin is planning to drop in and campaign for her.Unlikely, yeah, but this scenario is just wacky enough that I wouldn't lay any shekels out at all on the outcome.An extreme long shot that might end up happening.
So there it is primates. The ReThugs need 3 wins out of seven possibles. They now lead in 3 of those races already, with long odds in the other four..but it could happen.
If I was laying, I'd bet on them going 2 for 7 for a total of 9 pickups and a divided Senate.
Smell yah later, Primates!
Weekend Monkey was a Democratic candidate for president in 2008 and is JoshuaPundit's political Guru. He can be reached at wendmonkey@yahoo.com
6 comments:
AAARRRRGGGHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
you!!!
again!!!
if you take the states that monkey boy has highlighted here, you get 133 electoral votes. that's close to half way to the oval office. given the current economic conditions, and where we are going, i don't see how anyone, who would call themselves an american would vote for any of these people with a "d" by their name. the blue states indicate social welfare nanny state philosophies that should be abhorrent, to any person who has a sliver of an idea of what this country once was.
that many tight races, in states that have that much influence in determining the occupant of the oval office, at this stage, indicates a larger problem than who has what letter after their name. the representative arm of what was once our government should do what is best for the country and not best for them to feather their respective nests.
i am just curious about something chimpy.
does ff have some software vulnerability on his computer that you exploit on fridays?
you know chimpy, you are to J/P what stuxnet is to iran.
IYGMDAITYD
an example if i may, or not, for all i care.
have not exactly been the scene of frenzied mobs,
you wouldn't be talking about your kinfolk that are destroying the vinyards in south africa now would you?
even with the usual fudging and nudging,
monkey boy, no one here is interested in your sexual technique.
tons of cash and is as mean as a baboon with an infected hemorrhoid, and
i'm just not............
i can't...........
even, if..........
i.......
..........
..........
Apropos of & in re ' Connecticut ' : quote, ' filled with people who wouldn't vote for Jesus if he had an R after his name ', end of quote.
I fear that it's even worse than that. Were Jesus to waft down from the clouds onto Connecticut's liberal soil, he would shortly be met by a mob of several hundred bused-in loony-left protesters brandishing signs with slogans such as, eg, ' Jesus is interfering with the separation of church & state ' & ' Jesus is a Zionist ', & ' Back to galilee with ye ', & ' what's your immigration status ? ', & ' does he drink tea ? '.
The mob would then subsequently be bused out, leaving mountains of rubbish & trash. The leftie New York media wagging jaws & mouths would report hundreds of thousands of people had stood up in a great rally against bigotry & tea drinking & political incorrectness. & Zero would sick the Immigration & Naturalisation Service & the FIB upon him. ( Not to mention sending agents provacateurs into their midst in order to create strife even if it has to be created by the feds themselves ). & then he would be carried off on some trumped-up charge, although Peter would probably cut off one of the Fed's ears if he's the same type as he was.
dragon/dinosaur
PS :
The Republican Establishment wouldn't ' get it ', either : they would dismiss Jesus as a hippie & populist. At GOP Headquarters, they would describe these Jesus-types as a ' cross ' people, as unsavoury crusaders. They would accuse him of being anti-bankers ( didn't he overturn the bankers' counting tables in the temple ?! ). They would dismiss him as a fad, sort of like television, computers, & other such articles & items which no one recalls.
d/d
Who is Weekend Monkey really? Is he Chris Dodd?
haha
Man, we know that WEM's opinions are time-bound (that is, relevant for the moment in american politics) but it would be great if you had a tag with "Weekend Money" so that we could read all his WISE opinions!
PS: Does WeekendMoney have a Facebook account?
Hi Mats,
WM's not on Facebook as far as I know. Some of his stuff is tagged, but if you type in 'Weekend Monkey' under 'Search This blog' a lot of his previous stuff will come up.
His interviews with OJ Simpson, John Kerry and John Edwards were particularly good,as was his appearance on Larry King during the campaign among his many other outings.
Regards,
Rob
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