On Iran..some good news and some bad news

First off Ahmadinejad and company dismissed the incentives offered for their stopping nuclear enrichment..but not decisively. In other words, they're still mulling it over, probably with their pals the Russians.

"Any pressure to deprive our people from their right will not bear any fruit," he was quoted as saying on state-run television.

"Their opposition to our program is not because of their concern over the spread of nuclear weapons," he said. "They are worried that Iran would become a model for other independent countries, especially Islamic countries, for access to advanced technology."

Damn straight, Ahmadinejad...you think we want more of these toys in the hands of a bunch of Islamist jihadi nutcases?

Mohammad Saeedi, who's the deputy head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, upped the ante today by hinting that Friday that Iran might enrich uranium to higher levels than previously.

According to the Iranian news agency ISNA, Saeedi said Iran would not accept a limit on the levels of its uranium enrichment.

"It is incorrect to put a 3.5, 5 or even a 10 percent cap on Iran's level of uranium enrichment," he was quoted as saying. "Fuel for light water reactors needs uranium enriched to even 19.9 percent. So, these remarks that Iran should accept a 10 percent cap on its enrichment cannot be correct."

hmmmm.

US Secretary of State Condi Rice is in Vienna today, and was quoted as saying she was hopeful that Iran would rethink its position, "but we also have an alternative path if Iran doesn't negotiate." She made it clear that the United States would not "swear off ever using military action."

She also said Iran had a matter of weeks, not months to reply, something President Bush also emphasized.

One of the points in the game is the economic strategy the US has been pursuing against Iran...and with quite a bit of success. The US figures that the Russians and the Chinese willnot go along with sanctions, so it's been quietly pursuing a go-it-alone strategy, aimed at cutting the regime’s access to foreign currency and global markets and its isolation in the international financial community.


The mullahs have lots of cash from rocketing oil prices ,about $50 billion in estimated reserves, more than enough to ride out sanctions for the two or three years Iran would need to perfect it nuclear weapons program. But Iran doesn't really have many outlets for it. Three weeks ago, the Americans began visiting banks and financial institutions in West Europe and Asia, showing these institutions lists of Iranian firms, industries and private tycoons associated in one way or another with Iran’s nuclear weapons program and with the regime. They then let `em know that American banking and corporate doors would slam shut against any financial institutions continuing to do business with these people.

Once that was made clear, many of the banking and financial bodies buttonholed in this way were in a big hurry to cut their ties with the named Iranians, with immediate impact on Iran's ability to move capital.In other words, the Hamas squeeze play, but this time applied to Iran. And it's working well so far.

For Iran's part, they have the ability to ramp up things in Iraq; the Iranian trained Shia militias are the ones behind the violence in Southern Iraq. Iran also has a supply network that Iranian agents have spread across the country to supply weapons and funds to Sunni insurgents, Shiite militias and groups linked to al Qaeda,which is why the US moved the 1,500 troops of an American reserve unit, the 2nd Brigade of the 1st Armored Division from training in Kuwait over to Iraq’s terrorist-infested ratholes in the Anbar Province.

Politically, the Iranians still have enormous pull with the new Iraqi government, and I'm convinced that the rash of `atrocity' claims is designed to take some of the focus and the heat off of Iran.

Iran can also ramp up violence on Israel's border using Hezbollah and Hamas to target Jordan and Israel.

On the plus side, the momentum seems to be going our way for the moment, and Bush finally appears to be taking Iran seriously..stay tuned...