The reports of Israel `losing ' the Lebanon war are about to change

There has been a lot of opinion and scuttlebut published lately about the IDF `losing the war with Hezbollah.

I predict that this perception is about to undergo a massive change.

The IDF made some initial fumbles, especially on the ground, but that was largely because they were faced with new tactics on unfamiliar territory that had been heavily fortified, and were sent in piecemeal in small units. Only 3,000 ground trooops were used and about 100 tanks...as opposed to 30,000 troops and 500 tanks the last time. Olmert and Peretz over relied on airpower to do the bulk of the job, IMO, and the IAF did what airpower does best, but it was insufficient to take out Hezbollah forces dug into fortified tunnels in mountainous territory where tanks were unable to operate.

IDF Chief of Staff Dan Halutz originally wanted a major assault in force on Lebanon, but was overruled by the Cabinet.

That has now changed, with the deployment of 30,000 fresh reserves and continued airlifts from the US of needed supplies. Ands at this point, the IDF has adapted to Hezbollah's tactics.

With all the mostly well-intentioned talk about the IDF `losing', it's important to remember that they have severely damaged Hezbollah, taking out around 70% of their missile launchers and inflicting heavy casualties on their ground fighters...not to mention a virtual blockade of the country.

I see the IDF `playing possum' to an extent, withdrawing from Bint Jebeil in an apparent `defeat' to suck the maximum Hezbollah forces south of the Litani River.

Look for some tactical surprises in the next couple of days.The IDF did not mobilize 30,000 troops in order to promote a ceasefire or a defeat. They simply can't afford it,in any event, and I don't see them leaving Hezbollah intact as a threat... not after war almost exclusively directed at Israel's civilians.

At present,given Israeli military censorship, there's not much news out of the north..which more likely means something is happening rather than something isn't.

I wouldn't be surprised if the IDF is already well en route to the Litani River, and starting to encircle the Hezbollah fighters in an iron ring.

And don't be surprised if Israel's paratroopers, some of the best in the biz figure prominantly. That was how Sharon encircled and trapped the Egyptian Third Army in the `73 war.

Stay tuned...