Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Pakistan is coming apart

And the Bush Administrtion's `ally' Musharref may be going down the tubes.

It all started on March 9 when President Musharraf sacked Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan, after charging him with “misconduct and abuse of power”. He was put into virtual house arrest, his telephone connection was cut off, and he was completely isolated.

Chaudry and the Musharraf regime were at odds because of two primary issues: the Pakistani Supreme Court's investigation of rights violations and abductions by Pakistan's infamous ISI intelligence service and Chaudry's failure to sign off on Musharraf's `runnunig' for president to extend his 8 year rule.

What the regime did was to essentially trump up a bribery case against Chaudry, and call for his resignation, to pave the way for a Musharraf crony Justice Javed Iqbal to be acting chief justice.

This power play backfired on Musharraf, with Chaudry refusing to resign. Hard core Islamists in the MQM opposition party joined with Cahudry's supporters and there were widespread riots in Karachi and other cities that saw the army opening fire on the crowds and killing 40 people and wounding a number of others.

Today, there was a major suicide bombing at a hotel in Peshawar inthe Northwest that killed 25 people as the anti-Musharraf unrest continued.

Added to this is the virtual anarchy in Pakistan's Northwest, where al Qaeda and the Taliban have essentially established independent entities thanks to the agreement they made with Musharraf that gave them virtually free reign in the area.

Adding to the mix is the fact that Pakistan, an artificial country created by the British in 1949 has a number of divergent ethnic tribes who might very well take advantage of the chaos to secede, especially now that the Northwest has more or less set the trend. Baluchistan, for example has wanted to secede from Pakistan for some time, something alot of repressed Baluchis in places like Iran would very much like.

Another important ethnic divide is that of native Pashtos versus those born in what's now India. Musharraf, by the way, was born in New Delhi.

Pakistan is imploding, and has been for a long while. What we're seeing is the fruits of Zia Ul Haq's Islamization of Pakistan now taking shape.

So from our standpoint,if Pakistan implodes, the important questions are:

Who gets the nukes?

Are we finally going to take out the Taliban and alQaeda in Waziristan once and for all, now that our `ally' Musharraf is gone?

What port is going to replace Karachi as the Sea Port Of Debarkation for Operation Enduring Freedom?

China, the various `stans, India and Russia will be looking to grab various parts of what was Pakistan. Who does the US want involved there,and what are we prepared to do to impose that? What does the US want a post-Pakistan Central Asia to look like?

Stay tuned...


Anonymous said...

If Russia and China wish to grab pieces of a disintegrated Pakistan, there is very little the US can do about it. The US military is no condition to win a conventional military controntation with China. The US military is in no condition to win ANY type of military confrontation against Russia. It is doubtful that the US would be able to win a military confrontation against India. It seems that the US and India may share some common interests.

Our best option might be to work with India to try and contain Russia and China. As India is in a superior position, they would need to take the lead in any arrangement that we might make with them.

If the port of Karachi cannot be used for Operation Enduring Freedom, we may be able to use ports in India, however, this will be up to the Indians. They will need to take the lead in this.

The US may have no choice but to withdraw all of its troops from the Middle East. In addition to this, the US may have no choice but to withdraw all of its forces that are stationed around the world back to the US. Most Americans seem to want all of our forces that are outside of the country to be withdrawn to the US. They may soon get their wish. As for the long range rammifications of this, that remains to be seen.

Anonymous said...

Hi Poster,
Ummm...If I were you, I wouldn't rate the Chinese and Russian military all that highly compared to the US.

Especially the Russians. They haven't won a major war since the early 19th century, except for WWII...and they would have lost that as well, if it wasn't for us massively supplying them and then hitting the nazis fromthe West. Just compare the Russian efforts in Afghanistan with our own, for starters...

The ral power the Russians and Chinese have with the present administrationis a comercial one,trust me on that.

As for Pakistan, if it folds up, Russia, China, the `stans and India may nibble little bits, but in reality, nobody wants to have to have the rsponsibility for dealing with these people.It will become little ethnic states.

The chief thing we need to be concerned with is the nukes. And a new deep water harbor, not in India (too far away, perhaps)but somewhere in the PG or the Indian Ocean.

Take Care,


Anonymous said...

....um, as i see it, it all depends on what the saudi royal family tells their lap dog what to do.