Sunday, May 27, 2007

Showdown in Lebanon

The US is rushing planeloads full of desperately needed military supplies to the Siniora government in Lebanon in response to their desperate cry for help in battling the Syrian and Iranian proxies, the Palestinian fighters from Fatah Islam and their allies.

Accepting the aid pits the Siniora government directly against Hezbollah, who warned the Siniora government against entering the Nahr el-Bared camp where the main fighting is taking place and against accepting aid from Washington.

About half of Nahr el-Bared's 31,000 `residents' have fled since the fighting began, mostly to the nearby Beddawi refugee camp.

Here's Siniora's dilemma in a nutshell: By accepting the massive US aid, he gives the small part of the Lebanese army still loyal to the government rather than to Hezbollah, Amal or other factions the tools to at least have a chance at defeating the Palestinians and preserving his government in power.

The flip side is that by taking the US aid, he's positioned himself more firmly as
the US dog in a proxy fight against Iran and Syria - which in Lebanon, means Hezbollah and the other Shiite militias.

Not only that, but an all-out assault on Fatah Islam in their headquarters in the Nahr el-Bared camp is alomost certain to rile the 400,000 or so Palestinian `refugees' in other camps, all of which are crawling with armed groups.

The U.S. aid also just might attract other al-Qaeda elements into what they see as a battle against the West and its allies.

No less than Hezbollah's leader Sheikh Nasrallah bluntly advised the Lebanese army not to storm the Palestinian Nahr al-Bared camp or risk entagling Lebanon onthe side of the US against al-Qaeda. The camp and the Palestinian fighters in Fatah Islam, according to Nasrallah, are not to be touched. “We will not accept or provide cover or be partners in this,” he said. Nasrallah said that Hezbollah, Iran and Syria should support the Sunni Fatah Islam group...proof again, as if it were needed that Sunis and Shiites are more than willing to put aside their differences momentarily to unite for jihad against the common enemy.

What this indicates is not only the Iranian and Syrian backing of Fatah Islam (otherwise, Nasrallah would have kept silent)but an opening for Hezbollah to utilize its weaponry and fighters to support Fatah Islam to counterbalance the US aid to Siniora.

This could be the start of another civil war..after which either the Syrians would move back in to `preserve order', or Hezbollah would take over,which is pretty much the same thing.


Anonymous said...

There is another possibility other than the ones you mentioned above. The forces loyal to the Siniora government backed by American weapons could emerge victorious against the Palestinian terrorists. Then if Syria, Iran, or their proxies invade to "preserve order" the forces loyal to the Siniora government backed by American weapons could emerge victorious against the Syrians, Iranians, and their proxies. If this happened we could bave a valuable ally in the Global War on Terrorism. What the hey? It is Memorial Day. I will be optimistic. After all there is a possibility that this could happen. Delivering a stategic defeat to the forces of Jihad would be very helpful.

Freedom Fighter said...

Hi B. Poster!

I'm all for optimism.

However, keep in mind that the Siniora government has a significant Hezbollah once again, it's important to question what we're supporting here!